Investigating the Nisqually Glacier Outburst Flood Potential
Project ID: P13AC00992
Federal Agency: National Park Service
Partner Institution: Portland State University
Fiscal Year: 2013
Initial Funding: $24,975
Total Funding: $24,975
Project Type: Research
Project Disciplines: Biological
National Park: Mount Rainier National Park
Principal Investigator: Fountain, Andrew
Agreement Technical Representative: Samora, Barbara
Abstract: The National Park Service and the University of Washington will collaborate in a project to estimate the current and near-future outburst flood potential from the Nisqually Glacier and associated downstream hazards along the Nisqually River and the Longmire work area. Recent survey data indicates that lower glacier ice velocities are slowing down to an alarming level. Stagnant ice is strongly associated with destructive summer jökulhaups (glacier outburst floods). Jökulhaups usually turn into highly erosive and damaging debris flows, as they course down glacier-sourced rivers. They can produce flood peaks greatly in excess of floods from precipitation events. The only time Longmire, a major visitor and work center next to the Nisqually River, flooded was during outburst floods in the 1950s. This project will explore the relationship between stagnating glacier ice and outburst flood potential using: (1) historic outburst flood records from the park; (2) two years of detailed velocity measurements on the lower Nisqually Glacier; and (3) state-or-the-art glacial hydrology theory. The project will additionally describe a plan for future research to increase the accuracy of flood forecasts and for monitoring general hazard levels and provide short-term flood warnings. This project will provide vital geologic hazard mitigation along the Nisqually River corridor at Mount Rainier National Park (MORA) to protect people, natural resources, and park infrastructure. The MORA management team will directly use this information to create action plans and other planning documents to ensure visitor safety and maintain or reestablish visitor access on the majority of park roads threatened by imminent, climate-related glacier flooding and associated debris flows. A final report will be produced, and information will be made available to incorporate project results into publicly available climate change interpretive programs, brochures and educational curriculum.
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