Estimating risk to humpback whales from shipping: a comparative approach from Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, and Francisco Coloane Marine Protected Area, Chile

Project ID: P17AC01307

Federal Agency: National Park Service

Partner Institution: University of Washington

Fiscal Year: 2017

Initial Funding: $25,280

Total Funding: $25,280

Project Type: Research

Project Disciplines: Biological

National Park: Glacier Bay National Park & Preserve

Principal Investigator: Branch, Trevor

Agreement Technical Representative: Gende, Scott

Abstract: The overall objective of this effort is to improve the ability of each park to meet its management goals and best balance conflicting objectives by better understanding the risk of shipping to humpback whales. Specifically, the goal is to build quantitative modeling tools that can provide insight into the population level benefits to humpback whales in the parks and evaluate management effectiveness. For AMPFC, the goal is to build a mark-resight model that can be used in the future by CEQUA, which incorporates the previously mentioned sources of uncertainty and generate robust estimates of the demographics, sitefidelity, population growth rates, and social structure. ln GLBA, such rates are available from previous studies (e .g., Hendrix et al. 2012; Saracco et al. 2014), whereas in AMPFC, the rates must be estimated.
Once the improved mark-resight models have been constructed for estimating abundance, trend, and demographic rates in AMPFC, the second objective is to generate and apply risk models to both parks under current and forecasted scenarios of whale abundance, shipping volume, and shipping impacts. This type of threat assessment was recently generated in a similar fashion for blue whales off the coast of
California (Monnahan et al. 2015) and may require a suite of modeling techniques.
This project will improve the understanding of the population dynamics and threats to humpback whales, and help eva luate the role of establishing protected areas in meeting management objectives for conservation of a species that regularly transits beyond park boundaries. Improved understanding of the population dynamics of endangered species populations that inhabit national parks serves the public, who has entrusted these exemplary natural areas to the care of the National Park Service. Ultimately, both parks (GLBA and AMPFC) will benefit from this comparative approach where contrasts are made for the two protected areas with similar biophysical characteristics, management goals, and conservation targets (humpback whales), but contrast sharply in size and ability to regulate risk (shipping). Project products will be publicly shared with both the scientific community and the public at large. For the scientific community, at least one peer-reviewed scientific journal article will be written, and a seminar on the results will be provided in both Chile and the US following Dr. Cole’s return. For the public at large, a public presentation will be given at the UW once results have been published.