Characterizing Extreme Fire Weather Synoptic Events

Project ID: 22-JV-11261987-039

Federal Agency: U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station

Partner Institution: Central Washington University

Fiscal Year: 2022

Initial Funding: $46,554

Total Funding: $46,554

Principal Investigator: Walsh, Megan

Agreement Technical Representative: Potter, Brian

Abstract:

Fires of Unusual Size (FOUS) are exceptionally large, rapidly growing fires. They are relatively rare in number, but very large in their impact on the total fire area burned across the United States every year. Understanding the weather factors that drive these fires, what makes them different from other fires, and how their frequency may change in the decades to come are all very important for efforts to protect resources and communities from FOUS impacts.

Previous work has indicated that overall weather conditions during FOUS differ from those during other large fire. The characteristics of these differences are somewhat counterintuitive, however – generally, FOUS occur during persistently milder conditions compared to large fires.

These milder conditions are punctuated by brief, intense dry wind events. Better characterization of both the general conditions, and the intense events, will help identify potential FOUS conditions in short- and long-term forecasts of weather and climate.