Glacier Retreat, Outburst Floods, and Kinematic Waves— Long-Term Nisqually Glacier Changes Related to Climate Change
Project ID: P12AC15072
Federal Agency: National Park Service
Partner Institution: University of Washington
Fiscal Year: 2012
Initial Funding: $72,500
Total Funding: $72,500
Project Type: Research
Project Disciplines: Physical
National Park: Mount Rainier National Park
Principal Investigator: Conway, Courtney
Agreement Technical Representative: Samora, Barbara
Abstract: The National Park Service and the University of Washington will collaborate in a project to summarize Nisqually glacier changes over the past century and offer predictions for future changes, under various climate change scenarios. The Nisqually glacier is among the most accessible in the United States, and surveys have been regularly made (since 1931) to determine changes in the elevation of the surface, along 3 lateral transects. These long-running data will be examined and analyzed from the perspective of other glacier monitoring projects, and on-going climate change. The results will be interpreted in several contexts including: (1) glacier dynamics; (2) climate change; (3) glacier mass balance; and, most importantly, (4) geologic hazards (such as glacier outburst floods). Information on geologic hazards will be immediately communicated to park managers. A peer-reviewed scientific publication, and a display-quality animated film of glacier changes and movement, will be also be produced. The latter will display the actual transect elevations, on the glacier surface, as they change through time. In this way, the viewer will see highly realistic and compelling images of the passage of the kinematic waves, and the associated glacier advances (if applicable), in addition to overall glacier thinning and shrinking. This project has several other public benefits, including providing valuable information for climate change, glacier dynamics, regional hydrology (water quantity and quality, and timing), and most importantly, geologic hazard mitigation at Mount Rainier National Park (MORA) to protect people, natural resources, and park infrastructure. The MORA management team will directly use this information to create action plans and other planning documents to ensure visitor safety and maintain or re-establish visitor access on the majority of park roads threatened by imminent, climate-related flooding and debris flows.
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