Identifying Potential Barriers, Corridors, and Refugia for Species in the Face of Climate Change

Project ID: J8W07110014

Federal Agency: National Park Service

Partner Institution: University of Washington

Fiscal Year: 2011

Initial Funding: $72,000

Total Funding: $236,000

Project Type: Research

Project Disciplines: Biological

National Park: North Coast and Cascades Network Inventory & Monitoring

Principal Investigator: Lawler, Joshua

Agreement Technical Representative: Rochefort, Regina

Abstract: In the coming century, climate change will result in shifts in the distributions of plants and animals. These range shifts are projected to significantly alter the flora and fauna of the National Parks. The movement of species in response to changing temperature, moisture, and disturbance regimes, such as fire and insect outbreaks, will be hindered by dispersal barriers and facilitated by corridors, more permeable matrix lands, and refugia (areas and systems that will be more resilient to climate change). Understanding where changes are likely to be the greatest, where refugia may occur, and where landscape connectivity could be increased, will help managers and planners facilitate climate-change adaptation for many species. To increase this understanding, we will collaborate in conducting a climate-change assessment for the national parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) designed to identify climate refugia as well as barriers to and opportunities for species movements in a changing climate. The assessment will be based on projected changes in climate, vegetation, and the distribution of key focal species. We will produce maps, reports, and publications describing 1) how climate, vegetation, and the distributions of key species of the NCCN parks are likely to change in response to projected regional climate changes, 2) which areas both within and surrounding the parks may experience large changes and which areas will potentially act as refugia for species, and 3) where potential barriers to and corridors for dispersal may occur under future climates. We will also develop one or more workshops to assist managers in applying the results of our analyses to management activities. The results of this project will assist the NCCN parks in their development of climate-based adaptation strategies for protecting and managing park resources. There are several public benefits to this project including improved protection of public lands, protection of migration corridors for wildlife populations, and improved understanding of potential changes to park ecosystems. All results will be shared with the public through public outreach.