Pacific Northwest Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU)

Quantitative Forecasting of Above and Belowground Climate Change Impacts at Wind Cave National Park

Project ID: J8W07100052

Federal Agency: National Park Service

Partner Institution: Oregon State University

Fiscal Year: 2010

Initial Funding: $38,618

Total Funding: $164,181

Project Type: Technical Assistance

Project Disciplines: Biological

National Park: Wind Cave National Park

Principal Investigator: Bachelet, Dominique

Agreement Technical Representative: Fischer, Karri

Abstract: Climate change impacts and the interactions between management decisions and natural resource responses present a strong need for tools that managers can use to guide future management strategies. In 2009, Wind Cave National Park (WICA) was used as a case study in a workshop piloting the use of scenario planning as one possible tool. The scenarios focused on potential changes in vegetation and hydrology which are intertwined with nearly all park resources, including keystone, endangered, and rare plant and wildlife species, and the park’s namesake cave. Although scenario planning was a useful tool for discussion purposes, the participants’ general consensus was that the process lacked scientific credibility and the management implications drawn from the process would not pass the public and scientific scrutiny of the process required for significant management decisions made in park planning documents. This collaborative project will provide localized, quantitative simulations of future climate at WICA and the expected ecosystem responses to potential future climate scenarios using climate, hydrological, and ecosystem models customized for the park and its vicinity. These simulations will provide the information necessary for the desired quantitative evaluation of the scenarios and management implications derived in the scenario planning workshop. This is a key opportunity, as WICA begins revising its General Management Plan, to include climate change forecasting as a vital set of information for long-term park planning. Interpretive programs will use the project products and convey the knowledge gained about climate change impacts in the northern Great Plains to visitors.

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