Willamette Systems Alternatives Analysis and Simulation Tool Development and Application to Inform Implementation and Adaptive Management Plans
Project ID: W912HZ-24-2-0042
Federal Agency: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Partner Institution: University of British Columbia
Fiscal Year: 2024
Initial Funding: $225,000
Total Funding: $450,000
Principal Investigator: McAllister, Murdock
Agreement Technical Representative: Piaskowski, Richard
Abstract:
The UBC research team will first apply its existing Integrated Passage Analysis (IPA) framework to support completion of the final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and a Record of Decision (ROD). UBC will then extend its IPA framework to enable management strategy evaluation (MSE) modeling to facilitate the scoping of the adaptive management (AM) process, and develop and apply simulation models to evaluate adaptive management options for passage options at Willamette Valley System (WVS) projects in four sub-basins, i.e., for: (1) spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter steelhead (O. mykiss) in the North Santiam River, (2) spring Chinook salmon and winter steelhead in the South Santiam River, (3) spring Chinook salmon in the McKenzie River, and (4) spring Chinook salmon in the Middle Fork of the Upper Willamette River watershed.
MSE is a formalized structured decision analysis framework that has been applied in numerous fisheries since the 1980s to develop adaptive management approaches to fisheries management under uncertainty; the framework includes in-depth and regular input provided by stakeholders and decision makers and the development of empirically based simulation evaluation models that are applied to evaluate how well candidate management options meet a pre-specified set of management objectives. In four Willamette Valley sub-basin MSEs, alternative upstream and downstream passage options will be quantitatively evaluated based on established fish population recovery objectives to be achieved. A set of alternative hypotheses on how performance metrics will respond to different passage options will be developed and data sets from on-going monitoring will be compiled and analysed for each sub-basin to update parameters within the IPA life cycle models (LCMs). Hypothesized biological outcomes of each set of passage options and the ability to effectively test the hypotheses under different adaptive management options will be compared. The MSE modeling framework will be applied in the four sub-basins to quantify the value of information (VOI), risks, and costs associated with different management options for fish passage and uncertainties about their effectiveness. The VOI estimates will be analyzed to identify critical data gaps and associated research opportunities that will support the Corps’ missions and can inform collaborative decisions among several levels of policy and management. The risks of failing to re-establish self-sustaining populations of wild spring run Chinook salmon and winter steelhead above the dams in these Willamette sub-basins will be assessed by quantifying the potential for each passage option to affect the following:
- Adult and juvenile fish collection and passage efficiency
- Adult and juvenile fish survival and injury rates
- Adult and juvenile migration timing
- Recruits per spawner (where recruits are defined as surviving natural origin spawners and this metric is quantified separately for natural origin spawning spring Chinook salmon and winter steelhead)
- Probability of quasi-extinction (c.f. McAllister, et al. 2022a, 2022b)
- Cohort replacement rate (the number of spawners produced by each generation of spawners)
Operating models to be applied in the MSEs will be formulated using the LCMs developed within the IPA framework. These LCMs will be further developed to include desirable features, e.g., account for mortality from supersaturation of total dissolved gas (TDG) and include modelling of juvenile production downstream of dams. The potential effects of hatchery production on the genetic integrity and fitness of natural origin spring Chinook salmon and winter steelhead populations will also be evaluated with hatchery assessment modules for each of the MSEs. We will also continue development of the R version of the Fish Benefits Workbook (FBW) to overcome identified limitations to its structure and ability to account for and propagate uncertainty. Additional model changes may be possible, e.g., to account for hypothesized ecosystem interactions between natural origin and hatchery origin juvenile Chinook and steelhead and their predators and parasites.