Ruben Granich, Somya Gupta, and Victoria Rose argue that the systematic exclusion of politically sensitive causes of death, such as genocide, enormously underestimates the numbers and causes of childhood deaths worldwide. Genocide-related child deaths in Gaza represent one of the leading global causes of childhood mortality. They recommend recognizing and coding genocide as a preventable cause of death for accountability, accurate health metrics, and urgent humanitarian response.
The authors state that although official reports cite 60,199 deaths in Gaza as of July 2025, upper sensitivity analysis estimate of total fatalities may reach 601,990 (28% of 2.13 million population). Likewise, they calculate that child deaths (under 15) range from 14,824 (reported) to 59,296 (medium estimate) to 148,240 (high estimate), equating to 2%, 7%, and 17% of the under-15 population, respectively. Under-five mortality likely increased 14–34 times, from 13.9 per 1,000 live births in 2022 to 191.1 (medium) and 477.8 (high) in 2024. Infant mortality potentially increased 4–9 times, from 10.8 to 39.0 and 97.5 per 1,000 live births. For 2024, official reported child deaths rank Gaza 18th globally despite Gaza’s being less than 1% of global population; medium and high estimates rank it 15th and 10th, respectively. The estimated 41.74 (med) and 104.36 (high) deaths per 1,000 population position Gaza genocide as the leading cause of child mortality worldwide.
Their article, “Childhood mortality during Gaza genocide in 2024: A comparative analysis with global disease burden” is published in the Scandinavian Jorunal of Public Health, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14034948251389044