Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 2, 2020

A COVID-19 Transmission Model Informing Medication Development and Supply Chain Needs

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[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modified SEIR model using data from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard estimated that 66% of global SARS-CoV-2 cases were asymptomatic; each symptomatic and asymptomatic case could infect 2 and 6 other people, respectively. 10% of cases were super-spreaders, who had a 2-fold higher risk of transmission rate than average. Mitigation strategies with a stringency index of ≥60% were required to reduce the reproduction ratio below 1. Without mitigation strategies, the mean maximum infection rate was 0.9 cases/day (inter-country range 0.6-1.4). 

Lemenuel-Diot et al. (Dec 2, 2020). A COVID-19 Transmission Model Informing Medication Development and Supply Chain Needs. Pre-print downloaded Dec 2 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.23.20237404