Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 28, 2020

Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England

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[pre-print; not peer-reviewed] A mathematical modeling study for 3 regions in England estimated that the novel SARS-Co-V2 variant, VOC 202012/01, is 56% (range 50-74%) more transmissible than earlier strains. The analysis incorporated testing data and cell phone data to estimate population movements in order to assess for the contribution of behavioral change as an alternate explanation for increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 in these regions. The analysis did not find evidence for differences in mobility and contact patterns to explain differences in prevalence of the variant, but found that a modeling scenario incorporating higher transmissibility of the variant strain was the best fit to data observed in these regions. 

Davies et al. (Dec 26, 2020). Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England. Pre-print downloaded Dec 28 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248822