Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 13, 2021

Using Excess Deaths and Testing Statistics to Improve Estimates of COVID-19 Mortalities

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[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A study combining historical and current mortality data, a statistical testing model, and an SIR epidemic model found that average excess deaths across the US were 13% higher than reported COVID-19 deaths. In some areas, such as New York City, the number of weekly deaths was about eight times higher than in previous years. Countries such as Russia, Ecuador, and Spain had excess deaths that were around three time higher than their reported COVID-19 deaths, while few excess deaths were identified in Denmark, Norway, or Germany. The authors argue that use of excess deaths as a standard mortality measure may provide more accurate estimates of COVID-19 deaths than infection or case fatality ratios. 

Boettcher et al. (Jan 12, 2021). Using Excess Deaths and Testing Statistics to Improve Estimates of COVID-19 Mortalities. Pre-print downloaded Jan 13 from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.10.21249524v1