Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 4, 2021

Rapid Vaccination and Early Reactive Partial Lockdown Will Minimize Deaths from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants

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A mathematical model calibrated to King County, Washington (but generalizable across states) suggests that across all scenarios of varying vaccine efficacy, rapid vaccination (roughly 8,000 people per day) and lower case thresholds for triggering and relaxing partial lockdown are the two most critical variables that predict lower total numbers of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Across all scenarios, a more contagious variant will likely dominate by early summer, with longer delays in resurgence in regions with relatively higher current seroprevalence.

Reeves et al. (Feb 3, 2021). Rapid Vaccination and Early Reactive Partial Lockdown Will Minimize Deaths from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants. Pre-print downloaded Feb 4 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.02.21250985