Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 26, 2021

Rapid Vaccination and Early Partial Lockdown Minimizes 4th Waves from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants

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  • A model calibrated to King County, Washington that includes the increased transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant, and local policy changes regarding openings and restrictions, found a new subsequent wave of infections was permitted in all scenarios. However, the new wave had fewer deaths expected compared to the prior wave due to vaccination of people at high risk for mortality. In addition, the authors suggest that vaccination is highly important in King County because the restrictions implemented during the prior wave led to a lower seroprevalence entering the vaccination phase of the epidemic. The model predicted that B.1.1.7 would become dominant between April and June of 2021.

Reeves et al. (Apr 2021). Rapid Vaccination and Early Partial Lockdown Minimizes 4th Waves from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants. Med. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.medj.2021.04.012