Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 10, 2020

Widespread Testing, Case Isolation and Contact Tracing May Allow Safe School Reopening with Continued Moderate Physical Distancing: A Modeling Analysis of King County, WA Data

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  • Modeling based on King County, Washington State indicates that returning to a level of 75% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions between May 15-July 15 was projected to result in 350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining less than 45% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions was required to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. A combination of increased testing, isolation of symptomatic infections, and contact tracing permitted 60% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions and allowed opening of schools with <15 daily deaths. [EDITORIAL NOTE: This manuscript was previously summarized as a pre-print on Aug. 16]

Bracis et al. (Nov 13, 2020). Widespread Testing, Case Isolation and Contact Tracing May Allow Safe School Reopening with Continued Moderate Physical Distancing: A Modeling Analysis of King County, WA Data. Infectious Disease Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.003