Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 21, 2020

Household Bubbles and COVID-19 Transmission Insights from Percolation Theory

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[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] After developing a network description of households in the UK, and using a configuration model to link households, bubbling scenarios in which single-person households join with another household had a minimal impact on network connectivity and transmission potential (increase in reproduction number of 0.3).  Scenarios where all households formed a bubble were likely to lead to extensive transmission (increase in reproduction number of 2.84-3.55). The impact of scenarios that varied in bubble uptake and size could be mitigated by reducing the number of contacts outside the household.

Danon et al. (Dec 18, 2020). Household Bubbles and COVID-19 Transmission Insights from Percolation Theory. Pre-print downloaded Dec 21 from  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.16.20248311v2