Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 24, 2021

Epidemiological Characteristics of Three SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern and Implications for Future COVID-19 Pandemic Outcomes

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study that accounted for under detection of infection, seasonality, concurrent use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and mass vaccination, found that the B.1.1.7 variant was 47% more transmissible but infrequently escaped immunity from prior wild-type infection; B.1.351 was 32% more transmissible and had 61% immune escape; and P.1 was 43% more transmissible and had 53% immune escape. The model suggested that B.1.351 and P.1 could become dominant strains and lead to increased infections. 

Yang and Shaman. (May 21, 2021). Epidemiological Characteristics of Three SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern and Implications for Future COVID-19 Pandemic Outcomes. Pre-print downloaded May 24 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.19.21257476