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April 28, 2020
Impact of temperature on the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in China
This study examines the relationship between daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and temperature using data from 31 provincial regions in China. The authors’ model showed a significant decrease in incidence with temperatures above 46-50⁰F. This suggests that temperature played an important role in the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, and may be useful in predicting the…
Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: A nationwide cross-sectional study
A cross-sectional ecological study used county-level data representing 98% of the US population to investigate the association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and COVID-19 death. The authors found a statistically significant increase of only 1 𝜇g/m3 in PM2.5 is associated with an 8% increase in the COVID-19 death rate (95% CI: 2-15%). Findings underscore the…
Regional differences in reported Covid-19 cases show genetic correlations with higher socio-economic status and better health, potentially confounding studies on the genetics of disease susceptibility
This regional genome-wide association study included data from 396,042 individuals in England to investigate the association between genetic variants and regional differences in reported COVID-19 cases. The author found a temporary positive relationship between COVID-19 cases and regional socioeconomic status at the beginning of the outbreak, the opposite direction of expected disease increasing effects, and…
Racial and Ethnic Disparities in SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Analysis of a COVID-19 Observational Registry for a Diverse U.S. Metropolitan Population
A cross sectional analysis of 4,513 individuals, including 754 positive cases, explores race disparities and potential mediating pathways (low income, high population density, and high comorbidity burden). Findings show that African American race and Hispanic ethnicity are associated with higher likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection, even after adjusting for other important socio-demographic and comorbidity factors. The…
Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 Exit Strategies Building Blocks
The authors compare various exit strategy building blocks and measures to mitigate the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic based on computerized simulations, finding significant differences in suppression among strategies with seemingly similar cost. The most effective strategies found integrate several base strategies, and allow for the release of large portions of the population. Stratified population release to…
April 27, 2020
Contact Tracing: a game of big numbers in the time of COVID-19
Kim and Paul studied the characteristics of automated contact tracing and its effectiveness for mapping the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They highlight the infrastructure and social structures required for automated contact tracing to work, and further display vulnerabilities of the strategy to sufficiently determine significant contact with infected individuals. They conclude that a strong reliance on…
An Interactive Online Dashboard for Tracking COVID-19 in U.S. Counties, Cities, and States in Real Time
Wissel et al have created an interactive online dashboard for tracking COVID-19 outbreaks in U.S. counties, cities, and states in real time. It uses R Shiny application to aggregate data from multiple resources that track COVID-19 and visualizes them through an interactive, online dashboard. It displays COVID-19 data from every county and 188 metropolitan areas…
Metropolitan Wastewater Analysis for COVID‐19 Epidemiological Surveillance
Randazzo et al used RTqPCR for SARS‐CoV‐2 detection in a series of longitudinal wastewater samples collected during the earliest stages of the epidemic in Valencia, Spain. The team consistently detected SARS‐CoV‐2 RNA in samples taken when cases in that region were only incipient. They note that wastewater viral RNA context increased rapidly and anticipated the…
Influenza-Negative Influenza-Like Illness (fnILI) Z-Score 1 as a Proxy for Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19
SARS-CoV2 test shortages preclude implementation of a robust surveillance system in the US. Mirza et al. used the derivative influenza-negative influenza-like illness (fnILI) z-score from the CDC as a proxy for incident cases and disease-specific deaths to determine the burden of disease. They report that, for every unit increase of fnILI z-score, the number of…
Assessing suppression strategies against epidemic outbreaks like COVID-19: the SPQEIR model
This new extended epidemic SEIR model quantifies distinct measures by comparing several suppression approaches and potential exit strategies that may be used during lockdown to revive the economy while keeping the pandemic under control. The authors conclude that; while rapid and strong lock-down is an effective pandemic suppression measure, a combination of other strategies such…
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