Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

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February 6, 2020

Epidemiological parameter review and comparative dynamics of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, human coronavirus, and adenovirus

Spencer, et al. examine five virus groups (influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, adenovirus, and human coronaviruses) that often contribute to the total category of “influenza-like-illness” (ILI). They estimate human coronaviruses account for around 8.8% of ILI cases annually. Epidemiologic characteristics are compared between human coronaviruses and the other four virus groups assessed.  Incubation period,…


Evidence and characteristics of human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV

Based on a review of 188 confirmed cases from Guangdong Province (China), Kang, et al. describe characteristics of human-to-human transmission.  Average age was 49 years; half male. 158 cases (84%) had traveled to Hubei Province within 14 days of onset. Average duration of symptom onset to diagnosis was 5.4 days. 31 clusters accounting for 84…


February 5, 2020

Baricitinib as potential treatment for 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease

Using BenevolentAI, knowledge of coronavirus receptors, and assumptions about vulnerable cell types, Richardson, et al. assess AP2-associated protein kinase 1 (AAK1) inhibitors for potential 2019-nCoV therapeutic use. They identify baricitinib as a candidate for trials based on its plasma concentration at therapeutic doses. Richardson, et al. (Feb 3, 2020). Baricitinib as potential treatment for 2019-nCoV…


Machine intelligence design of 2019-nCoV drugs

Gao, et al. apply a generative network complex (GNC) machine intelligence approach to identify candidate protease inhibitors for treating 2019-nCoV, including an assessment of two HIV protease inhibitors.  The GNC identifies 3-dimensional (3-D) drug candidates based on elements that include structure generation and property prediction algorithms. Molecule generation includes assessment of properties like binding affinity…


Specific ACE2 Expression in Cholangiocytes May Cause Liver Damage After 2019-nCoV Infection

Liver function abnormalities have been observed in some 2019-nCoV patients. Chai, et al. assess potential pathways for this damage given the presumed role ACE2 expression in 2019-nCoV infection.  They found liver abnormalities of 2019-nCoV patients could involve cholangiocyte dysfunction more than hepatocyte damage. Drug induced and systemic inflammatory response may also have a role.  Chai…


Machine learning-based analysis of genomes suggests associations between Wuhan 2019-nCoV and bat Betacoronaviruses

Randhawa, et al. use a machine-learning approach to confirm classification of 2019-nCoV as a Betacoronavirus, subgenus Sarbecovirus, of bat origin Randhawa, et al. (Feb 4, 2020). Machine learning-based analysis of genomes suggests associations between Wuhan 2019-nCoV and bat Betacoronaviruses. Pre-Print downloaded on 5 Feb, 2020 from, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.03.932350v1 


Genomic variance of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus

A phylogenetic analysis including 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV and bat CoVs found evidence of the evolutionary link between bat and bat/SARS-CoV-like viruses and 2019-nCoV, with bat/Yunnan/RaTG13/2013 as a potential most-recent ancestor. Additional epitope identification is also presented. Ramaiah A and Arumugaswami V (Jan 30, 2020). Genomic variance of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus. Pre-Print downloaded on 5 Feb, 2020…


Genomic variance of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus

Ceraolo and Giorgi construct an expansive phylogenetic tree of representative coronaviridae. They confirm a >99% match among sequenced 2019-nCov isolates; and a 96.2% match between 2019-nCoV and the most closely-related bat coronavirus. While 2019-nCoV sequences were fairly homogenous, at least two hyper-variable genomic areas were identified (ORF 1ab, silent; ORF8, serine/leucine variation). They also assessed…


Preliminary identification of potential vaccine targets for 2019-nCoV based on SARS-CoV immunological studies

Using previously described similarities between 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV, Ahmed, et al. used SARS-CoV-derived experimentally-determined B- and T-cell epitope data to find epitopes in the S and N structural proteins of 2019-nCoV that were identical between the two viruses.  Epitopes are parts of the virus “seen” by the immune system. By finding comparable sites across the…


Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases

DeSalazar, et al. use air travel volume estimates out of Wuhan to identify countries that may have undetected cases. Their primary findings indicate the Indonesia likely has undetected cases; and that Cambodia and Thailand may have an undercount of cases. Improved public health surveillance is recommended for these countries.  DeSalazar, et al. (Feb 5, 2020)….



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