Article Summary
February 5, 2020
Risk assessment of novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreaks outside China
Boldog, et al. model the risk for 2019-nCoV outbreaks outside China by developing local reproduction numbers (Rloc) that incorporate factors affecting epidemiology in China and new locations, and their connectivity. Countries should balance controlling spread after introduction with preventing introduction. Countries with a low ability to control spread should focus on travel restrictions and traveler…
February 4, 2020
Early epidemiological analysis of the 2019-nCoV outbreak based on a crowdsourced data
Context: Based on current reports from China, the case fatality (%) among confirmed cases since the start of the epidemic is 2.1% (15% among “severe” cases; 1% among all confirmed and suspected cases). Sun, et al. used crowdsourced data from a Chinese healthcare professional community network site and other publicly available data to provide information…
An emerging coronavirus causing pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan, China: calling for developing therapeutic and prophylactic strategies
Jiang, et al. provide a review of sequence homologies among SARS, MERS, and bat-SL-CoV’s related to 2019-nCoV strains in order to predict the potential utility of viral replication inhibitors found effective for SARS and MERS in animal models They align 2019-nCoV S protein sequence with those of SARS-CoV and several bat-SL-CoVs to predict the cleavage…
Fast assessment of human receptor-binding capability of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Huang and Herrman perform large-scale protein-protein docking experiments to quantify the interactions of 2019-nCoV S-protein receptor-binding domain (S-RBD) with human receptor ACE2 Sampling a large number of thermodynamically probable binding conformations with Monte Carlo algorithm, they established an experiment-based strength reference for evaluating the receptor-binding affinity of 2019-nCoV via comparison with SARS-CoV. The binding affinity…
The association between domestic train transportation and novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in China from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven correlational report
Train travel was correlated with the spread of 2019-nCoV through mainland China. Zhao S, et al. (in press) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101568
Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travelers infected with 2019-nCoV
Airport screening will likely miss about 46% of infected travelers (in line with prior estimates) Quilty, et al. Pre-print downloaded 2 Feb, 2020 at, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.31.20019265v1
Estimating the risk on outbreak spreading of 2019-nCoV in China using transportation data
Using information from an International Air Transport Data database, SIR modeling techniques, and R0 estimates ranging from 1.4-2.9, critical timeframes for outbreak emergence (establishing transmission in a new locale) range from about 18-30 days. To gain 30 days in these scenarios, control measures must reduce connections between locales by 87-95%. Yuan HY, et al. Pre-print…
2019-20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak: Intense surveillance is vital for preventing sustained transmission in new locations
Chances of sustained transmission from an introduced case are about 37% without surveillance and 0.5% with “intense surveillance.” Thompson RN (2020) Pre-print downloaded 3 Feb, 2020 at, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.24.919159v1
Early dynamics of transmission and control of 2019-nCoV: a mathematical modelling study
In locations with “similar transmission potential as Wuhan,” three or more introduced cases will lead to a more than 50% chance of the infection becoming established in that locale Kucharski, et al. Pre-print downloaded 2 Feb, 2020 at, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.31.20019901v1
Emergence of a novel coronavirus causing respiratory illness from Wuhan, China
Tang, et al. provide a brief synopsis of two Thai cases and a case from Japan, noting that these did not enter the specific “wet market” at the epicenter of the current epidemic and were not epi-linked to each other They go on to cite the non-specific symptoms identified among the early cases; the lack…
Previous page Next page