Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

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December 23, 2020

Multiplex Assays for the Identification of Serological Signatures of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: An Antibody-Based Diagnostic and Machine Learning Study

Testing for multiple biomarkers, as opposed to testing for a single antibody, increased the sensitivity of correctly identifying past SARS-CoV-2 infection. A multiplex serological assay was used to measure IgG and IgM antibody responses to seven SARS-CoV-2-specific antigens, two seasonal coronavirus antigens, and three non-coronavirus antigens. Antibodies were measured in serum samples collected up to…


ACTIV-3/TICO LY-CoV555 Study Group. (Dec 22, 2020). A Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody for Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19

A randomized clinical trial among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 that aimed to assess the effect of LY-CoV555, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody, was halted due to futility after 314 patients had undergone infusion with either the antibody or a placebo. Patients who received the antibody infusion did not have better clinical outcomes at day five than…


Early Empirical Assessment of the N501Y Mutant Strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom October to November 2020

[pre-print; not peer-reviewed] Leung at al. estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 lineage that has rapidly become the most dominant in the United Kingdom is 75% more transmissible than the previous lineage, potentially due to a mutation in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein. Their estimates suggest that the R0 for the mutated 501Y strain…


December 15, 2020

Understanding Drivers of COVID-19 Racial Disparities: A Population-Level Analysis of COVID-19 Testing among Black and White Populations

Missouri Department of Health data show that Black populations in the St. Louis and Kansas City regions had lower COVID-19 testing rates per diagnosed cases compared to white populations consistently throughout the pandemic. During March to June 2020, zip codes in the lowest quartile of testing rates, which had higher proportions of Black, uninsured, and…


Impact of Population Growth and Aging on Estimates of Excess U.S. Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to August 2020

Accounting for changes in the population age in the four-year period between 2015 and 2019 compared to the period between March and August of 2020 reduced estimates of excess deaths in the US from 301,400 deaths to 218,000 deaths, which substantially increased the contribution of COVID-19-related deaths (173,300 from March to August) to an excess…


Evaluating Intervention Strategies in Controlling COVID-19 Spread in Care Homes: An Agent-Based Model

Routine testing of staff in care homes was shown to be more effective than other infection control interventions, according to a transmission model parameterized to a care home setting in Scotland. Using isolation of symptomatic residents, testing of new admissions, social distancing, and restricted visiting as the reference intervention, the addition of routine testing of…


Individual and Community-Level Risk for COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

Jin et al. developed a model to produce absolute risk estimates for the general adult population across 477 US cities and for the Medicare population aged 65 years and older across 3,113 counties. Incorporating various sociodemographic factors and pre-existing conditions and validated with 54,444 deaths due to COVID-19 from June to October 2020, the model…


Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission May Prevent or Dampen a Spring Wave of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in 2021

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A model based on King County data shows that if the vaccine efficacy of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are primarily driven by complete protection against infection, then prevention of a fourth epidemic wave in Spring 2021 and a reduction of subsequent cases and deaths by 60% is likely to occur, assuming…


COVID-19 Infections Among Healthcare Personnel in the United States Veterans Health Administration, March – August, 2020

Among 131,606 healthcare personnel (HCP) in the US Veterans Health Administration, 5,925 (4.5%) had positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests. HCP who were working in hospitals with >15% SARS-CoV-2 positivity among inpatients, as well as nursing staff, HCP who identify as Black or Hispanic, and veterans were at highest risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Male sex, age over…


Characteristics, Comorbidities and Survival Analysis of Young Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York City

In a cohort of young adults aged 18 to 35 years admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in New York City (n=395), 58% of patients had at least one major comorbidity. The mortality among those with at least one major comorbidity was 17% (40 of 229), compared to 9% (15 of 166) among those without a…



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