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Tag: modeling prediction
December 21, 2020
Household Bubbles and COVID-19 Transmission Insights from Percolation Theory
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] After developing a network description of households in the UK, and using a configuration model to link households, bubbling scenarios in which single-person households join with another household had a minimal impact on network connectivity and transmission potential (increase in reproduction number of 0.3). Scenarios where all households formed a bubble were…
December 15, 2020
Evaluating Intervention Strategies in Controlling COVID-19 Spread in Care Homes: An Agent-Based Model
Routine testing of staff in care homes was shown to be more effective than other infection control interventions, according to a transmission model parameterized to a care home setting in Scotland. Using isolation of symptomatic residents, testing of new admissions, social distancing, and restricted visiting as the reference intervention, the addition of routine testing of…
Individual and Community-Level Risk for COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
Jin et al. developed a model to produce absolute risk estimates for the general adult population across 477 US cities and for the Medicare population aged 65 years and older across 3,113 counties. Incorporating various sociodemographic factors and pre-existing conditions and validated with 54,444 deaths due to COVID-19 from June to October 2020, the model…
Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission May Prevent or Dampen a Spring Wave of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in 2021
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A model based on King County data shows that if the vaccine efficacy of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are primarily driven by complete protection against infection, then prevention of a fourth epidemic wave in Spring 2021 and a reduction of subsequent cases and deaths by 60% is likely to occur, assuming…
December 14, 2020
Impact of Mass Testing during an Epidemic Rebound of SARS-CoV-2 A Modelling Study
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study using a compartmental SEEIR model to evaluate the impact of mass testing of SARS-CoV-2 during an epidemic rebound in France found that a monthly campaign covering 75% of the population would reduce daily infections by 43% by May 1st, 2021, and a bi-weekly campaign would reduce infections by 75%….
December 11, 2020
Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
A modeling study assessing the global impact of travel restrictions due to COVID-19 finds the restrictions are effective primarily in countries with low numbers of cases or that have strong travel links with countries experiencing high rates of infection. The authors suggest that strict untargeted travel restrictions are probably unjustified in many countries, other than…
December 10, 2020
Widespread Testing, Case Isolation and Contact Tracing May Allow Safe School Reopening with Continued Moderate Physical Distancing: A Modeling Analysis of King County, WA Data
Modeling based on King County, Washington State indicates that returning to a level of 75% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions between May 15-July 15 was projected to result in 350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining less than 45% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions was required to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. A…
December 9, 2020
Strengthening Policy Coding Methodologies to Improve COVID-19 Disease Modeling and Policy Responses: A Proposed Coding Framework and Recommendations
To address inconsistencies in how policies related to closing and reopening elements of society are described and analyzed, researchers developed a framework to categorize the various policies in place in 12 US states. A comparative content analysis using a 16-element framework, including domains such as bars, restaurants, childcare, and religious gatherings, revealed high granularity and nuance…
December 7, 2020
Quantifying the Impact of Test-Trace-Isolate-Quarantine (TTIQ) Strategies on COVID-19 Transmission
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A study modeling impacts of a test-trace-isolate-quarantine (TTIQ) strategy on SARS-CoV-2 transmission showed that finding and isolating positive individuals quickly after symptom onset had the largest effects on reducing cases, and that contact tracing may mitigate suboptimal test coverage or delays. Overall, TTIQ was found to be effective in controlling epidemics with…
December 4, 2020
Positive Impact of Facility-Based Isolation of Mild COVID-19 Cases on Effectively Curbing the Pandemic: A Mathematical Modelling Study
A compartmental model simulating SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics projected that a facility-based isolation strategy with moderate capacity (5 beds per 10,000 total population) could avert 4.2 million new infections and 16,000 deaths in two months compared with home-based isolation, equivalent to relative reductions of 57% of new infections and 37% of deaths. Doubling bed capacity resulted in…
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