Result for
Tag: modeling prediction
September 15, 2020
Simulating Phase Transitions and Control Measures for Network Epidemics Caused by Infections with Presymptomatic, Asymptomatic, and Symptomatic Stages
In a model considering asymptomatic, presymptomatic, and symptomatic transmission, the level of viral shedding was found to have the greatest impact on the total number of infections, followed by the probability of social distancing and individually initiated social isolation given a threshold number of infected contacts. Braun et al. (Sept 10, 2020). Simulating Phase Transitions…
September 14, 2020
High COVID-19 Transmission Potential Associated with Re-Opening Universities Can Be Mitigated with Layered Interventions
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study of university reopening in the UK compared transmission dynamics under different assumptions about the infectiousness of asymptomatic patients. Assuming an infectious period of 5 days, the authors report that if asymptomatic cases are 50% as infectious as symptomatic cases, then 20% undergraduates would be infected. If asymptomatic cases are…
September 2, 2020
Analyzing Inherent Biases in SARS-CoV-2 PCR and Serological Epidemiologic Metrics
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modeling study found that the observed peak in PCR-detected SARS-CoV-2 infections can follow the peak of true infection incidence due to prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2 by approximately ten days in a scenario with an R0 of 1.6 versus 5 days when R0 is 3. Half of those who tested positive…
Potential Community and Campus Covid-19 Outcomes Under University and College Reopening Scenarios
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modeling study of various US college and university reopening plans (various fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) shows common reopening strategies could reduce student SARS-CoV-2 infections by 24%-26% and deaths by 36%-50%. Perfect testing and immediate quarantining of all students on arrival to campus at the start of term…
Modeling the Combined Effect of Digital Exposure Notification and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Washington State
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modeling study based on three counties in Washington state predicts that if 15% of the population participates a in digital exposure notification system, it could reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections by 8% and COVID-19 related deaths by 6%. The authors conclude that this approach could complement traditional contact tracing. Abueg et al….
September 1, 2020
The Urgent Need for Phased University Reopenings to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19 and Conserve Institutional Resources A Modeling Study
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A modeling study indicates that phased reopening of college campuses (one-third of student population returning to campus each month) coupled with pre-arrival SARS-CoV-2 testing would reduce peak of daily infections compared to pre-arrival testing without phased reopening or no intervention at all. Phased reopening with pre-arrival testing could reduce the peak…
August 27, 2020
Particle Modeling of the Spreading of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
De-Leon and Pederiva present a kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm that shows that a cyclic schedule of no-restrictions/lockdowns that includes at least ten days of lockdown for each cycle can help control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In particular, this model reduces the infection rate when accompanied by social distancing and complete isolation of symptomatic patients. The comparison between…
August 25, 2020
Impacts of K-12 School Reopening on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Indiana USA
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Espana et al. conducted a modeling study with varying degrees of school operating capacity and face-mask adherence to estimate the impact of a K-12 school reopening in Indiana on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Their model indicated that, from August 24 to December 31, operating schools with high face-mask adherence would result in 3-times the…
August 24, 2020
Quarantine and Testing Strategies in Contact Tracing for SARS-CoV-2
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Modeling by Quilty et al. found that for known contacts of COVID-19 cases, a quarantine period of at least ten days, combined with a PCR test on day nine, may yield similar results to a 14-day quarantine period in terms of averted transmission potential from secondary cases. Fourteen days of quarantine averted…
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