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Tag: modeling
September 24, 2020
Transmission Dynamics Reveal the Impracticality of COVID-19 Herd Immunity Strategies
Achieving herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 without overwhelming hospital capacity was found to be impractical in a modeling study, due to the need to change social distancing requirements over time and with little room for error. Suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was possible with realistic levels of social distancing over several months. The transmission model was parameterized…
College Openings Mobility and the Incidence of COVID-19 Cases
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] In a modeling study, US counties containing a college campus that reopened with in-person instruction were found to have an average COVID-19 incidence increase of 0.024 cases per 1,000 residents over a two week period. Case increases were larger in counties with colleges that drew students coming from areas with increasing…
August 21, 2020
COVID-19 Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the United States before Phased Removal of Social Distancing Protections Varies by Region
• [pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Pan et al. quantified the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in the United States and found that only the most stringent level of restrictions (e.g, sheltering in place / stay-at-home, public mask requirements, or travel restrictions) significantly decreased COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US. These policies…
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