Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
May 19, 2021
Modeling the Impact of Racial and Ethnic Disparities on COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics
A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fitted to prevalence data on anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (n>15,000) collected in April 2021 from New York and matched with census data found that the burden of infection largely fell on minority populations until the herd immunity threshold was reached. Ma et al. (May 18, 2021). Modeling the Impact of Racial and Ethnic Disparities…
May 18, 2021
Controlling Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Essential Workers of Enclosed Food Manufacturing Facilities
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] In a quantitative risk assessment model simulating a susceptible worker exposed to a SARS-CoV-2-infected worker during an 8-hour shift at an enclosed food manufacturing facility, infection risk was highest (96%) via droplet and aerosol transmission within 1-3 meters in the absence of any mitigation measures. Droplet transmission contributed mostly at 1 meter…
May 17, 2021
Risk of COVID-19 Epidemic Resurgence with the Introduction of Vaccination Passes
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A SIR model simulating the impact of vaccine passes or passports on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics found that different restrictions for passholders and unvaccinated individuals can result in a wide variety of epidemic trajectories, some of which may introduce new waves of infections. For example, while passholders may have fewer restrictions initially compared to…
May 13, 2021
Quantifying the Potential for Dominant Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.351 in the United States
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An age-stratified SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to the US population and current vaccination rates suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant would likely remain the dominant variant of concern in the US compared to the B.1.351 variant through December 2021, if the B.1.351 variant reduced vaccine efficacy by less than 30% or if…
May 12, 2021
Resuming In-Person Classes under COVID-19 Evaluating Assigned Seating Protocols in Limiting Contacts at Postsecondary Institutions
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Simulations of seating arrangements based on student enrollment data from the 2019-2020 academic year at the University of British Columbia found that assigned seating could reduce the mean number of contacts per student to 31 compared to 130 contacts per student with random seating. In combination with assigned seating, excluding large classes…
May 10, 2021
School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas
[Working paper, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that school reopenings in Texas in the fall of 2020 may have accelerated community spread of COVID-19, with 43,000 additional cases and more than 800 additional deaths within the first two months following reopenings. The report notes that schools in…
May 7, 2021
Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting COVID-19 Vaccination
A modeling study of US population dynamics and COVID-19 vaccination scenarios demonstrated that every 1% increase in coverage could avert an average of 876,800 cases, depending on the number of people already vaccinated, with the greatest gains achieved when increasing vaccine coverage in the population from 0% to 50%. Additionally, the study demonstrated that increasing…
May 6, 2021
Outbreaks of Covid-19 Variants in Prisons A Mathematical Modeling Analysis of Vaccination and Re-Opening Policies
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to California state prisons predicts that if a viral variant is introduced in a prison with moderate vaccine coverage, and no baseline immunity that has resumed pre-2020 contact levels, 23-74% of residents could be infected over 200 days. Cumulative infections may be reduced to 2-54% if high…
May 5, 2021
Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021
Data from six models forecasting US COVID-19 projections with the 50% more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant up to September 2021 found that across 4 scenarios with varying levels of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) use, cases would rise and peak through May 2021 and sharply decline by July 2021. High vaccination scenarios predicted a faster decline….
Effect of Manual and Digital Contact Tracing on COVID-19 Outbreaks: A Study on Empirical Contact Data
A model assessing the impact of contact tracing on epidemic size reduction suggests that for manual contact tracing, as the fraction of contacts correctly recalled increases there are linear reductions in epidemic size while reductions were quadratically reduced with digital contact tracing via apps, as both case and contact need to be running the app….
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