This modeling study indicates that 2019-nCoV has a higher 2 effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate.

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Topic: Modeling and Prediction

January 29, 2020

This modeling study indicates that 2019-nCoV has a higher 2 effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate.

Using daily case reports from China CDC, researchers estimate the effective reproductive number (R, not R0) for 2019-nCoV. R is the number of secondary cases expected for each infectious case once an epidemic is already underway. R is estimated as 4.08, compared to SARS-CoV in Beijing (2.76) and Guangzhou (3.01). They also predict the future…

January 28, 2020

Pneumonia of Unknown Etiology in Wuhan, China: Potential for International Spread Via Commercial Air Travel

Authors used International Air Transport Association data to quantify traveler volume originating from Wuhan in 2018 from Jan-march, accounting for roughly 90% of all commercial travel. They present these data alongside Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index scores for high-volume-receiving countries. Authors identified no U.S. airports suggesting volume of travel from Wuhan to the U.S. is less…

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

Authors built a transmission model for the outbreak. Note that the model is limited by the assumptions made in constructing it. Key predicted measures are: R0 of 3.6 – 4.0 Only 5.1% (95% CI 4.8-5.5) of Wuhan infections are identified, meaning around 95% are going fully undetected. By February 4, 2020 the model predicts: Over…