Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
March 9, 2021
Clinical and Economic Effects of Widespread Rapid Testing to Decrease SARS-CoV-2 Transmission
A transmission model calibrated to the US population suggests that implementing weekly home-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing could avert 2.8 million infections and 15,700 deaths over 60 days. In contrast, a scenario with no testing anticipates 11.6 million infections and 119,000 deaths over the same time period. While the scenario with testing could cost an additional…
March 8, 2021
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence and Epidemiological Parameters with Uncertainty from Serological Surveys
A modeling study compared SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence from different sampling schemes by integrating uncertainty from test characteristics, sample size, and heterogeneity in seroprevalence across subpopulations into the modeling framework. Sampling schemes informed by demographics and contact networks outperformed uniform sampling techniques. In addition, convenience samples, such as samples from blood donors, could be used to estimate…
Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests with a Vaccine Rollout
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Implementing a nationwide SARS-CoV-2 testing program in the presence of vaccine distribution was projected to potentially save 20,000 lives and increase the US GDP by 2 to 8 times the incremental cost of the tests, according to an economic model that assumed 75% of the US population would be vaccinated by August…
March 4, 2021
Sars-Cov-2 Infection in Uk University Students: Lessons from September-December 2020 and Modelling Insights for Future Student Return
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study suggests that student adherence to testing and isolation is likely to contribute more to reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission than staggering return dates, based on data from the first term of the 2020/2021 academic year in universities in the UK. The authors suggest that in the presence of the more transmissible…
Estimated Transmissibility and Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England
A transmission model fitted to COVID-19 epidemiological data from the UK around the time of the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant suggest that the variant is 65-82% more transmissible, but has similar risk of hospitalization, critical illness, and death compared to earlier variants. Simulations done while removing a more transmissible variant from the model could…
March 1, 2021
Long, Thin Transmission Chains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 May Go Undetected for Several Weeks at Low to Moderate Reproduction Numbers: Implications for Containment and Elimination Strategy
Low reproduction numbers can lead to long, thin transmission chains that may span three or more viral generations before a clearly symptomatic case occurs, according to a series of mathematical models developed to assess the impacts of delayed index case identification in the context of SARS-CoV-2. Such chains may be underrepresented in routine surveillance data,…
February 26, 2021
The Public Health Impact of Delaying a Second Dose of the BNT162b2 or MRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An agent-based model estimated the impact of a strategy of delaying a second COVID-19 vaccine dose on cumulative mortality and found that a delayed second dose approach could result in reduced cumulative mortality under certain conditions, particularly in people under 65 years of age. The model was constructed using a simulated population…
Stepping Back to School: A Step-by-Step Look at COVID Introduction, Spread, and Exportation
[Report, not peer-reviewed] Covasim, a model previously used to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission among inter-personal contacts in King County, Washington predicted that the rate of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into K-12 school classroom settings is proportional to the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. The model is an agent-based model of contacts at home, school, work and…
February 23, 2021
Association of the Timing of School Closings and Behavioral Changes With the Evolution of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in the US
A model using population-based data from US states suggests that voluntary behavioral changes, such as reducing time at work, could have up to a 3-fold higher impact on reducing COVID-19 incidence compared to school closures. Each day earlier that school closures were implemented was associated with a 3.5% reduction in incidence, whereas each day earlier…
February 22, 2021
Inflight Transmission of COVID-19 Based on Experimental Aerosol Dispersion Data
A study simulating aerosol dispersion in a B77-200 aircraft to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection probability calculated that the MID-AFT (economy class) portion of the cabin exhibited the highest infection probability, with the average individual infection probability (without masks) for a 2-hour flight in this section varying from 0.1% for a ‘Mild Scenario’ to 2.5% for a…
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