Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
February 18, 2021
Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce COVID-19 Transmission in a Large Urban Jail: A Model-Based Analysis
A transmission model calibrated to an outbreak in a large urban US jail estimated that R0 for the first outbreak phase was as high as 8.44. Non-pharmaceutical interventions including reducing the size of the jail population (depopulation), single celling, and asymptomatic testing reduced R0 to 0.58 by day 37, preventing approximately 83% of the projected…
February 17, 2021
Overall Burden and Characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A data-driven model-inference approach to simulate the COVID-19 pandemic at the US county-scale determined that approximately one third of the US population had been infected during 2020. The model concluded that there was an overall ascertainment rate of 22%, and population susceptibility at year end was 69%. The percentage of people harboring…
Real-Time Prediction of COVID-19 Related Mortality Using Electronic Health Records
The COVID-19 early warning system (CovEWS), a risk assessment system tool for real-time forecasting of COVID-19 related mortality risk, was found to predict mortality up to 192 hours prior to mortality events in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. The model was constructed from a variety of clinical and biomarker inputs and at a sensitivity of greater…
February 16, 2021
The Usefulness Of SARS-CoV-2 Test-Positive Proportion As A Surveillance Tool
The test-positive proportion (TPP), the proportion of tested individuals who have tested positive, may be informative in predicting trends in COVID-19 incidence. The TPP strongly correlated with incidence in simulation results, as long as testing resources were sufficient to cover symptomatic and asymptomatic testing up to 35 days. However, the correlation between TPP and incidence…
February 11, 2021
Modeling Effectiveness of Testing Strategies to Prevent COVID-19 in Nursing Homes —United States, 2020
A model calibrated to US nursing homes suggests that 54% SARS-CoV-2 infections could be prevented by instituting weekly testing with a 2-day turnaround for all staff and residents immediately following detection of an index case (i.e. outbreak testing). Increasing the frequency of testing and reducing the turnaround to daily testing with immediate results could further…
February 9, 2021
Clinical and Economic Impact of Widespread Rapid Testing to Decrease SARS-CoV-2 Transmission
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A transmission model calibrated to the US population suggests that implementing weekly home-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing could avert 4 million infections and 19,000 deaths over 60 days while being cost-effective. While a scenario with testing could cost up to $21.5 billion, lower inpatient costs and fewer workdays lost could offset the costs…
Modelling the Impact of Reopening Schools in Early 2021 in the Presence of the New SARS-CoV-2 Variant and with Roll-out of Vaccination against COVID-19
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An existing transmission model calibrated to the UK (Covasim) calculated that a full national lockdown until April 2021, including school closures, could lower the effective reproduction number R below 1 by March 2021 when combined with a vaccination campaign capable of 200,000 daily doses targeted to elderly people. The model incorporated the…
February 8, 2021
Prioritizing Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines Based on Social Contacts Increases Vaccination Effectiveness
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Using an agent-based modeling approach integrating social contact networks in Virginia, spatiotemporal surveillance data on COVID-19 cases, and models of within- and between-host disease dynamics, Chen et al. showed that vaccine allocation based on the number of an individuals’ social contacts and total social proximity time was significantly more effective at reducing the number…
February 5, 2021
Comparative cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies in the USA: a modelling study
A mathematical model suggests that in communities where the SARS-CoV-2 is spreading rapidly, weekly testing coupled with a 2-week isolation period after a positive test is advisable. The authors assessed eight surveillance testing strategies that varied by testing frequency (from daily to monthly testing) and isolation period (1 or 2 weeks), compared with the status-quo…
February 4, 2021
Rapid Vaccination and Early Reactive Partial Lockdown Will Minimize Deaths from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants
A mathematical model calibrated to King County, Washington (but generalizable across states) suggests that across all scenarios of varying vaccine efficacy, rapid vaccination (roughly 8,000 people per day) and lower case thresholds for triggering and relaxing partial lockdown are the two most critical variables that predict lower total numbers of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths….
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