Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
December 23, 2020
Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness of Strategies for Adults Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic
In a modeling study that simulated adults living in shelters, daily symptom screening with PCR testing of individuals who had positive symptom screening and use of alternative care sites for COVID-19 management were associated with substantially reduced new cases and costs compared with other strategies. When community transmission surges, adding universal testing every two weeks…
December 21, 2020
The Challenges of the Coming Mass Vaccination and Exit Strategy in Prevention and Control of COVID-19 a Modelling Study
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study of potential vaccination scenarios in China, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, UK, and the US showed that there was a critical (minimum) vaccination coverage needed for each country to balance the discontinuation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) while avoiding a subsequent wave of infections, depending on effectiveness of NPIs. The authors concluded…
Household Bubbles and COVID-19 Transmission Insights from Percolation Theory
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] After developing a network description of households in the UK, and using a configuration model to link households, bubbling scenarios in which single-person households join with another household had a minimal impact on network connectivity and transmission potential (increase in reproduction number of 0.3). Scenarios where all households formed a bubble were…
December 17, 2020
Estimating the Herd Immunity Threshold by Accounting for the Hidden Asymptomatics Using a COVID-19 Specific Model
A model using data from Japan, Italy, France, and Switzerland that incorporates undetected asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection suggests herd immunity could be achieved when active symptomatic patients are 10-25% of the population, much lower than current estimates. Kaushal et al. (Dec 16, 2020). Estimating the Herd Immunity Threshold by Accounting for the Hidden Asymptomatics Using a…
Quantifying the Importance and Location of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Events in Large Metropolitan Areas
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] An agent-based model simulating the New York City and Seattle metropolitan areas from February to June 2020 found 80% of infections were produced by 27% of people, and 10% of events were super-spreading events (SSE). The model found most infections occurred in community and workplace settings prior to NPIs, whereas households…
December 15, 2020
Evaluating Intervention Strategies in Controlling COVID-19 Spread in Care Homes: An Agent-Based Model
Routine testing of staff in care homes was shown to be more effective than other infection control interventions, according to a transmission model parameterized to a care home setting in Scotland. Using isolation of symptomatic residents, testing of new admissions, social distancing, and restricted visiting as the reference intervention, the addition of routine testing of…
Individual and Community-Level Risk for COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
Jin et al. developed a model to produce absolute risk estimates for the general adult population across 477 US cities and for the Medicare population aged 65 years and older across 3,113 counties. Incorporating various sociodemographic factors and pre-existing conditions and validated with 54,444 deaths due to COVID-19 from June to October 2020, the model…
Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission May Prevent or Dampen a Spring Wave of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in 2021
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A model based on King County data shows that if the vaccine efficacy of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are primarily driven by complete protection against infection, then prevention of a fourth epidemic wave in Spring 2021 and a reduction of subsequent cases and deaths by 60% is likely to occur, assuming…
December 14, 2020
Impact of Mass Testing during an Epidemic Rebound of SARS-CoV-2 A Modelling Study
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study using a compartmental SEEIR model to evaluate the impact of mass testing of SARS-CoV-2 during an epidemic rebound in France found that a monthly campaign covering 75% of the population would reduce daily infections by 43% by May 1st, 2021, and a bi-weekly campaign would reduce infections by 75%….
December 11, 2020
Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
A modeling study assessing the global impact of travel restrictions due to COVID-19 finds the restrictions are effective primarily in countries with low numbers of cases or that have strong travel links with countries experiencing high rates of infection. The authors suggest that strict untargeted travel restrictions are probably unjustified in many countries, other than…
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