Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 6, 2021

Outbreaks of Covid-19 Variants in Prisons A Mathematical Modeling Analysis of Vaccination and Re-Opening Policies

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to California state prisons predicts that if a viral variant is introduced in a prison with moderate vaccine coverage, and no baseline immunity that has resumed pre-2020 contact levels, 23-74% of residents could be infected over 200 days. Cumulative infections may be reduced to 2-54% if high vaccination coverage and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are combined. Substantial infection risks are associated with dormitory-style prisons even with high vaccination coverage and NPI use unless there is high baseline immunity from prior infection. By contrast, less than 10% of residents in prisons with mostly cell housing are expected to be infected, even without baseline immunity. Prisons that house medically vulnerable populations are at increased hospitalization risks regardless of residential layout.

Ryckman et al. (May 5, 2021). Outbreaks of Covid-19 Variants in Prisons A Mathematical Modeling Analysis of Vaccination and Re-Opening Policies. Pre-print downloaded May 6 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.03.21256525