Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness


October 29, 2020

Optimal COVID-19 Quarantine and Testing Strategies

[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A mathematical model found that a 13-day quarantine with testing on entry, a 9-day quarantine with testing on exit, and an 8-day quarantine with testing on entry and exit all provide equivalent or lower probability of post-quarantine transmission compared to a 14-day quarantine with no testing. When limited to a single…


COVID-19 Outbreak at an Overnight Summer School Retreat ― Wisconsin, July–August 2020

Investigation of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak associated with an overnight high-school retreat suggests a single introduction from a student subsequently infected 76% (116) of attendees. The suspected index case received a negative PCR result 1 week prior to the retreat but experienced symptoms shortly after arrival. The attack rate among susceptible attendees was 91% (116 of…


Evaluating the Effect of Demographic Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, and Risk Aversion on Mobility during the COVID-19 Epidemic in France under Lockdown: A Population-Based Study

Analysis of mobile phone data in France showed that the March lockdown was effective in reducing population mobility, reducing countrywide displacements from 57 to approximately 20 million trips per day (65% reduction). Mobility drops were strongly associated with regions with active populations, workers employed in sectors highly affected by the lockdown, and hospitalizations. However, anomalous…


COVID-19 LITERATURE SITUATION REPORT OCT. 29, 2020

The scientific literature on COVID-19 is rapidly evolving and these articles were selected for review based on their relevance to Washington State decision making around COVID-19 response efforts. Included in these Lit Reps are some manuscripts that have been made available online as pre-prints but have not yet undergone peer review. Please be aware of…


October 26, 2020

Comparison of Upper Respiratory Viral Load Distributions in Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Children Diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Pediatric Hospital Testing Programs

Children with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were found to have lower levels of virus in their nasopharynx/oropharynx than children with symptomatic infection, but timing of infection relative to diagnosis likely influenced levels in asymptomatic children. A study assessing Ct values and estimated viral load in children with asymptomatic versus symptomatic infection showed that the median adjusted…


October 23, 2020

Association Between Social Vulnerability and a County’s Risk for Becoming a COVID-19 Hotspot — United States, June 1–July 25, 2020

Counties with greater social vulnerability were more likely to become areas with rapidly increasing COVID-19 incidence (“hotspot counties”), according to a report from the CDC. Counties with higher percentages of racial and ethnic minority residents (RR=5.3) and people living in high-density housing structures and crowded units (RR=3.1 and RR=2.0), were more likely to become hotspots,…


The Temporal Association of Introducing and Lifting Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions with the Time-Varying Reproduction Number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: A Modelling Study across 131 Countries

A modeling study of the impacts of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the level of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (measured as R) found that school and workplace closures, public events bans, and other social distancing requirements were associated with reduced R, though this was only significant for public events bans. The effect of introducing and…


Modeling COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States

An Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model suggests that universal mask use in the United States could save an additional 129,574 lives from September 22, 2020 through the end of February 2021, or an additional 95,814 lives assuming 85% mask adoption, when compared to the reference scenario. Three possible boundary scenarios were delineated:…


Disparities in Outpatient Visits for Mental Health and/or Substance Use Disorders during the COVID Surge and Partial Reopening in Massachusetts

Following a sharp drop in outpatient visits for mental health and/or substance use disorders early in the COVID-19 period, there was and increase in these visits over the course of the surge period in Massachusetts, supported by telemedicine, which was used in more than 80% of visits. During the surge, mental health visit volume increased…


SARS CoV-2 Surveillance and Exposure in the Perioperative Setting with Universal Testing and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) Policies

Universal PCR-based surveillance testing for SARS-CoV-2 before surgeries or procedures at a tertiary care center in New York City identified 65 patients (0.6%) were positive out of 11,540 patients tested. The proportion of tests that were positivity peaked at 4.3% and fell below 0.3% after April 2020. Three of the 65 individuals who tested positive…



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