Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

Article Summary


August 17, 2020

The Common Interests of Health Protection and The Economy Evidence from Scenario Calculations Of COVID-19 Containment Policies

[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Germany introduced restrictive shutdown measures in March 2020. The reproductive rate (Rt) fell below one in April 14. On April 20th, a gradual loosening of the restrictions was announced. With a lag of two weeks Rt increased again at the beginning of May. Based on these data during the initial shutdown phase, Dorn et al. constructed a simulation model…


Vaccine Optimization for COVID-19 Who to Vaccinate First

[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Matrajt et al. used an age-stratified model to determine optimal vaccine allocation for a population with an age distribution based on Washington State. Results suggest that 70% vaccine effectiveness (VE) would be enough to substantially mitigate the ongoing pandemic if at least 50% of the population is optimally vaccinated. For a low vaccination coverage among the population (<20%), the optimal allocation to minimize…


Maximizing Education While Minimizing COVID Risk : Priorities and Pitfalls for Reopening Schools

[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Cohen et al. estimated that 5-42% of schools would have at least one person with active COVID-19 on the first day of arrival, depending on the incidence of COVID-19 in the local community. Using the Covasim agent-based model, they estimate that 10-25% of staff and 6-17% of students would be infected in the first three months in a scenario where all students return to in-person…


Widespread Testing Case Isolation and Contact Tracing May Allow Safe School Reopening with Continued Moderate Physical Distancing a Modeling Analysis of King County WA Data

[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Modeling based on King County in Washington State indicates that returning to a level of 75% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions between May 15-July 15 would result in 350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining less than 45% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions was required to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. A combination of increased testing, isolation of symptomatic…


Bidirectional Associations between COVID-19 and Psychiatric Disorder a Study of 62354 COVID-19 Cases

[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Taquet et al. used anonymized electronic health record data from 69 million patients in the US, including over 62,000 cases of COVID-19, to identify relationships between COVID-19 episodes and adverse mental health consequences. They report that among patients with no prior psychiatric history, COVID-19 was associated with an increased incidence of psychiatric diagnoses in the three months after infection compared to other health events (HR…


Association Between Current Physical Activity and Current Perceived Anxiety and Mood in the Initial Phase of COVID-19 Confinement

López-Bueno et al. observed that among 2,250 Spanish adults confined due to COVID-19 restrictions on movement (March 22-29, 2020), those who adhered to WHO guidelines for physical activity reported lower perceived anxiety and lower perceived worse mood.   López-Bueno et al. (July 23, 2020). Association Between Current Physical Activity and Current Perceived Anxiety and Mood in the Initial Phase of COVID-19 Confinement. Frontiers in Psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00729 


Cerebral Micro-Structural Changes in COVID-19 Patients – An MRI-Based 3-Month Follow-up Study

A study of patients with COVID-19 (n=60) in Fuyang, China found that 68% had neurological symptoms during infection and 55% still had symptoms 3 months after infection. Brain imaging identified a variety of significantly different neurological characteristics between COVID-19 patients and non-COVID-19 volunteers (n=39) that could be relevant to long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2.  Lu et al. (Aug 3, 2020). Cerebral Micro-Structural Changes in COVID-19 Patients – An MRI-Based 3-Month…


Pre-COVID-19 Humoral Immunity to Common Coronaviruses Does Not Confer Cross-Protection against SARS-CoV-2

[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Miyara et al. analyzed the sera of 76 healthy French donors drawn in 2015 to test the hypothesis that past infections or immunizations related to the common alpha- and beta-coronavirus could lead to cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2. They reported 6 serological samples (8%) were reactive to SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Additionally, they detected serum IgG reactivity to common…


Tocilizumab among Patients with COVID-19 in the Intensive Care Unit: A Multicentre Observational Study

Based on 210 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in ICUs in New Jersey, receiving the drug tocilizumab was associated with a 40% reduction in mortality (aHR=0.6, 95%CI 0.5-0.9) compared with 420 propensity score-matched patients who did not receive tocilizumab.  Biran et al. (Aug 14, 2020). Tocilizumab among Patients with COVID-19 in the Intensive Care Unit: A Multicentre Observational Study. The Lancet Rheumatology. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2665-9913(20)30277-0 


COVID-19 in Children: Analysis of the First Pandemic Peak in England

Ladhani et al. analyzed public health surveillance data including 540,305 people tested for SARS-CoV-2 in England through May 3, 2020 and found that 1408/35,200 (4%) tests were positive among children younger than 16, compared to 19%-35% positive among adult age groups. Children accounted for 1.1% of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases. These included 8 deaths among children, three of whom had multiple co-morbidities and an additional four in whom SARS-CoV-2 was determined to be an indirect contributor…



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