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Tag: modeling
April 2, 2021
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via Breathing, Speaking, Singing, Coughing, and Sneezing
Risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission via aerosols beyond 1.5 meters can be low depending on the activity by which they are expelled, according to a risk assessment model using published data on expelled droplets by various activities and in vitro estimates of an infectious dose. In a 100m3 room after 20 minutes of exposure from breathing,…
March 29, 2021
Projected COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States in the Context of the Effectiveness of a Potential Vaccine and Implications for Social Distancing and Face Mask Use
A study developing a dynamic compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in New York, Texas, Florida, and California showed that relaxing social distancing restrictions to pre-pandemic levels without changing current face mask use would lead to new outbreaks, resulting in 0.8–4 million infections and 15,000–240,000 deaths across these four states over the next 12 months. If face…
Stochastic Sampling Effects Favor Manual over Digital Contact Tracing
A study using a stochastic model to compare manual and digital contact tracing methods found that even if the probability of tracing a contact was equal by each method, manual tracing robustly performed better than digital, after accounting for intrinsic delays and limited scalability associated with manual measures. The authors note that better performance of…
Comparison of Cough Particle Exposure for Indoor Commercial and Aircraft Cabin Spaces
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations from Boeing showed that in an airplane cabin (Boeing 737), 80% of particles from a coughing person were removed 5-12 times faster than from a similar indoor commercial space, which resulted in 7 times less particulate mass inhaled. Davis et al. (Mar 26, 2021). Comparison of Cough Particle…
March 25, 2021
Risk for Fomite-Mediated Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Child Daycares, Schools, Nursing Homes, and Offices
A transmission model suggests that hourly cleaning and disinfection alone could interrupt fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in some office settings, but would not be sufficient for child daycares and schools and should be combined with measures to reduce viral shedding such as mask wearing. Model estimates show that sustained transmission may be possible based on…
March 10, 2021
Modeling Transmission Dynamics and Effectiveness of Worker Screening Programs for SARS-CoV-2 in Pork Processing Plant
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and screening programs in pork processing facilities during spring 2020 found that the effectiveness of routine PCR-screening at minimizing disease spread was influenced more by testing frequency than delays in results, the initial reproduction number, or background community transmission rates. While testing every three days prevented ~25-…
Comparison of COVID-19 Vaccine Prioritization Strategies in the United States
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A static simulation model using California as an example to compare the impact of different vaccine prioritization strategies in the United States found that prioritizing older individuals averted the highest proportion of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, 40% for 5 million individuals vaccinated) and deaths (65%), but the lowest proportion of cases (12%)….
March 8, 2021
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence and Epidemiological Parameters with Uncertainty from Serological Surveys
A modeling study compared SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence from different sampling schemes by integrating uncertainty from test characteristics, sample size, and heterogeneity in seroprevalence across subpopulations into the modeling framework. Sampling schemes informed by demographics and contact networks outperformed uniform sampling techniques. In addition, convenience samples, such as samples from blood donors, could be used to estimate…
Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests with a Vaccine Rollout
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Implementing a nationwide SARS-CoV-2 testing program in the presence of vaccine distribution was projected to potentially save 20,000 lives and increase the US GDP by 2 to 8 times the incremental cost of the tests, according to an economic model that assumed 75% of the US population would be vaccinated by August…
March 1, 2021
Long, Thin Transmission Chains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 May Go Undetected for Several Weeks at Low to Moderate Reproduction Numbers: Implications for Containment and Elimination Strategy
Low reproduction numbers can lead to long, thin transmission chains that may span three or more viral generations before a clearly symptomatic case occurs, according to a series of mathematical models developed to assess the impacts of delayed index case identification in the context of SARS-CoV-2. Such chains may be underrepresented in routine surveillance data,…
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