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Tag: vaccination
February 2, 2021
Under What Circumstances Could Vaccination Offset the Harm from a More Transmissible Variant of SARS-COV-2 in NYC Trade-Offs Regarding Prioritization and Speed of Vaccination
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A transmission model calibrated to COVID-19 hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths in New York City suggests that the introduction of a 56% more transmissible variant could triple the peak in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths and more than double cumulative infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by the end of February 2021. For…
February 1, 2021
The Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Outbreaks in the United States
A modeling study evaluating the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the US showed that over a period of 300 days, vaccinating 40% of the population in sequential priority groups reduced the overall attack rate from 9% (without vaccination) to 4.6%, with the greatest relative reductions among those aged 65 and older. Modeled…
January 19, 2021
Optimal SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Allocation Using Real-Time Seroprevalence Estimates in Rhode Island and Massachusetts
Vaccine allocation models parametrized to the seroprevalence estimates of Rhode Island and Massachusetts show that allocating >75% of the vaccine supply to individuals ≥70 years old optimally reduces total cumulative deaths through mid-2021. Although not explicitly modelled, allocating a majority of the supply to other high-risk groups will yield the same effect. Vaccinating seronegative individuals…
January 12, 2021
Will They, or Won’t They? Examining Patients’ Vaccine Intention for Flu and COVID-19 Using the Health Belief Model
Lower vaccine acceptance was associated with younger age (18-49) and lower income (<20,000 per year or undisclosed) in a nationally representative survey conducted in October among US respondents (n=525). Additionally, survey participants who reported not having anyone close to them directly affected by COVID-19 showed significantly more negative COVID-19-related health behavior such as not avoiding…
January 5, 2021
How Vaccination and Contact Isolation Might Interact to Suppress Transmission of Covid-19 a DCM Study
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A dynamic causal model parametrized to the UK population suggests that 15 million people (roughly 50,000 per day) would need to be vaccinated by December 2021 and combined with enhanced contact tracing to achieve a 50% herd immunity threshold. With current rates of contact tracing, 24 million people (36% of the…
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