Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
June 14, 2021
Effect of Specific Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Policies on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the Counties of the United States
A modeling study estimating the impact of different non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) policies on the SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number (Reff) found that NPIs that included closure of schools and leisure activities and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97) or face…
Spatial Accessibility Modeling of Vaccine Deserts as Barriers to Controlling SARS-CoV-2 Transmission
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study showed that the early SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation (February 19 and March 17, 2021) in the US created “vaccine deserts” – areas with localized, geographic barriers to vaccine-associated herd immunity – which the authors suggest may impact population-wide efforts to curb SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Using an empirically-parameterized spatial accessibility model that…
June 10, 2021
Optimizing Vaccine Allocation for COVID-19 Vaccines Shows the Potential Role of Single-Dose Vaccination
A model optimizing COVID-19 vaccine allocation calibrated to Washington State found that with high single-dose efficacy (>65%) and low baseline transmission, single-dose vaccination in all adults is optimal and can prevent up to 22% more deaths compared to a strategy prioritizing two-dose vaccination for older adults. However, under low single-dose efficacy (20%) and high transmission…
A Model and Predictions for COVID-19 Considering Population Behavior and Vaccination
A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model incorporating social behavioral changes in response to infection rates and vaccination rates suggests that a large increase in the sense of safety and a lowering of precautions due to vaccination to pre-pandemic levels could result in a surge of infections. However, the model predicted that new infections rates could approach zero…
June 8, 2021
Passing the Test: A Model-Based Analysis of Safe School-Reopening Strategies
A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model simulating an average US elementary and high school classroom found that over an 8-week quarter, asymptomatic weekly screening combined with an A/B schedule generally had the greatest reduction in in-school transmission. Vaccination of staff greatly reduced transmission, but only among staff. Reductions in transmissions varied depending on local SARS-CoV-2 incidence and…
June 7, 2021
Slight Reduction in SARS-CoV-2 Exposure Viral Load Due to Masking Results in a Significant Reduction in Transmission with Widespread Implementation
A mathematical model fit to data from King County, Washington found that in a scenario where masks only lowered viral exposure by about 50%, they were still effective at controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and moderately efficacious masks would reduce exposure viral load ten-fold among people who get infected despite masking in the era before vaccines were…
June 2, 2021
Mechanistic Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Memory Variants and Vaccines
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] The COVID-19 transmission model Covasim, with updated methods accounting for trajectories in immune response, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and vaccine roll-out, found that neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) correlated strongly with infection blocking. The model suggests Nabs elicited by natural infection may provide more protection than the same level of Nabs elicited by vaccines; however, vaccines…
May 26, 2021
Monoclonal Antibody Treatment Prophylaxis and Vaccines Combined to Reduce SARS CoV-2 Spread
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US population found that allocating monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) as post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and treatment of persons with COVID-19 in combination with a vaccination program could substantially reduce infections and mortality. Allocation of mAbs as PEP to persons >65 years of age averted up to…
May 24, 2021
Epidemiological Characteristics of Three SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern and Implications for Future COVID-19 Pandemic Outcomes
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study that accounted for under detection of infection, seasonality, concurrent use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and mass vaccination, found that the B.1.1.7 variant was 47% more transmissible but infrequently escaped immunity from prior wild-type infection; B.1.351 was 32% more transmissible and had 61% immune escape; and P.1 was 43% more transmissible…
May 21, 2021
Controlling COVID-19 via Test-Trace-Quarantine
A modeling study found that high coverage of a test-trace-quarantine approach to COVID-19 containment could be sufficient for epidemic control even under a return to full workplace capacity and community mobility in a setting with low vaccine coverage. This approach involves regularly testing people with COVID-19 symptoms, identifying and testing potentially exposed contacts, and placing…
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