Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
November 25, 2020
Effect of Hot Zone Infection Outbreaks on the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Spread in the Community at Large
[Pre-print; not peer-reviewed] A mathematical modeling study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission described two types of SARS-CoV-2 “hot zones” that may be important in understanding community transmission. The first type of “static hot zone” modeled included nursing homes, prisons, and other places in which the same people repeatedly interact. The model found that even if community transmission…
November 23, 2020
The Potential Impact of School Closure Relative to Community-Based Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases in Ontario Canada
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study based on a scenario of one million individuals in Ontario, Canada predicted that school reopening would result in a small change in COVID-19 case numbers among students and teachers in a setting with community-based prevention measures. The model showed that the increase was driven mostly by acquisition in the…
November 20, 2020
Clinical Outcomes Of A COVID-19 Vaccine: Implementation Over Efficacy
A mathematical model used to estimate the population benefits of a vaccine against COVID-19 finds that factors related to implementation will contribute more to the success of vaccination programs than a vaccine’s efficacy as determined in clinical trials. The model suggests the benefits of a vaccine will decline substantially in the event of manufacturing or…
November 17, 2020
Optimizing COVID-19 Control with Asymptomatic Surveillance Testing in a University Environment
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model parametrized to the University of California, Berkeley community found that an approach combining group size limits, rapid symptom-based isolation and contact tracing, and targeted high frequency asymptomatic surveillance testing offers the most cost-effective outbreak control. The model suggests reducing group sizes to a maximum of 12 greatly…
November 16, 2020
Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses
A modeling study that tested scenarios with varying levels of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine efficacy found that a vaccine with prophylactic efficacy of ≥70% could eliminate infection and prevent major outbreaks in scenarios where 80% of the population receives the vaccine. A vaccine with a lower efficacy could still control infection in a scenario with additional reduction…
November 12, 2020
Age Separation Dramatically Reduces COVID-19 Mortality Rate in a Computational Model of a Large Population
Network modeling parametrized to a large population with an Israeli age distribution (more younger people) and an Italian age distribution (more older people) show that age separation could dramatically reduce COVID-19 mortality. Separating older groups (55+ years old) from the rest of the population and compensating for the loss of social connectivity by adding new…
Mobility Network Models of COVID-19 Explain Inequities and Inform Reopening
A transmission model incorporating mobility networks from neighborhoods to locations of interest suggests a small minority of “superspreader” locations, such as full-service restaurants and hotels, account for the majority of infections. The mobility networks are derived from cell phone data from 10 large US metropolitan areas. The model also predicts higher infection rates among lower-income…
November 9, 2020
COVID-19 Wastewater Epidemiology A Model to Estimate Infected Populations
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model based on composite wastewater samples from sewersheds tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA (a method to estimate the number of infected individuals in a sewershed per day) in South Carolina during June-August 2020 estimated the unreported rate for COVID-19 was 12 times (95%CI 6-19) higher than the rate for confirmed…
November 6, 2020
Implication of Backward Contact Tracing in the Presence of Overdispersed Transmission in COVID-19 Outbreaks
Identification of the source of newly-detected SARS-CoV-2 infections (“backward contact tracing”), was found to be a potentially effective outbreak control measure. Endo et. al used a simple branching process model and found that backward tracing was expected to identify a primary case generating 3-10 times more infections than average, which could increase the proportion of…
Evaluation of COVID-19 Testing Strategies for Repopulating College and University Campuses: A Decision Tree Analysis
A decision-tree analysis evaluating five SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies for college students returning to campus found that testing all students upon arrival and then retesting them seven days later identified the greatest number of cases. The five different strategies evaluated were: (1) classifying students with symptoms as having COVID-19, (2) RT-PCR testing for symptomatic students, (3)…
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