Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
November 5, 2020
Testing the waters: is it time to go back to school? Diagnostic screening as a COVID‐19 risk‐mitigation strategy for reopening schools in King County, WA
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Modeling of K-12 school reopening in King County, Washington found that if in-school countermeasures are observed, diagnostic screening either with PCR tests or rapid antigen tests may be of little benefit due to a higher rate of false positive tests in this low prevalence setting. Modeled in-school countermeasures included daily symptom screening,…
November 4, 2020
COVID-19 Active Surveillance Simulation Case Study – Health and Economic Impacts of Active Surveillance in a School Environment
A simulation study of a school environment concluded that daily testing can assist with maintenance of a low infection rate. The authors concluded that a reasonable daily test percentage (6%-10% with social distancing and mask wearing, or 8-10% without mitigation procedures) among the student population can achieve a low infection rate (≤10%). Saad et al….
November 3, 2020
Cost–Benefit of Limited Isolation and Testing in COVID-19 Mitigation
A study using an agent-based disease transmission model examined the costs and benefits of replacing lockdowns with a one-step tracing and quarantine strategy. This strategy of closing workplaces when a case is identified, isolating social contacts of the case, and keeping symptomatic individuals in quarantine until symptoms resolve (estimated at 5 days) reduces transmission by…
November 2, 2020
The Effect of Eviction Moratoriums on the Transmission of SARS-CoV-2
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Evictions led to significant increases in SARS-CoV-2 infections in a model simulating changes in housing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the model scenario for Philadelphia, a city with historically high eviction rates, the increase was especially pronounced as it considered a heterogenous city with frequent contacts between residents. The model indicated…
Quantifying the Impact of Public Health Protection Measures on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2
A study from France modeling the effectiveness of public health measures to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (aside from strict lockdown) found that mask mandates and restricting access to public places such as bars reduced the number of new cases per day by 75% and delayed a peak in infections by about 2 months. However,…
October 30, 2020
The Risk of Indoor Sports and Culture Events for the Transmission of COVID-19 (Restart-19)
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A study simulating a seated indoor mass gathering event (MGE) found that in scenarios where hygiene protocols and ventilation were good, 0 to 23% of subsequent cases of SARS-CoV-2 were attributable to the MGE. All participants in the simulation wore N95 masks, and three different hygiene protocols were evaluated, ranging from no…
Projected COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States in the Context of the Effectiveness of a Potential Vaccine and Implications for Social Distancing and Face Mask Use
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Findings from a study using a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California) indicated that in the absence of a vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 transmission could be slowed in these states by adherence to strict social distancing guidelines and widespread face mask…
October 28, 2020
Effects of New York’s Executive Order on Face Mask Use on COVID-19 Infections and Mortality A Modeling Study
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] According to estimates from a modeling study, the Executive Order issued by New York State mandating mask use reduced the number of COVID-19 infections by 99,517 (95% CIs: 72,723-126,312) and COVID-related deaths by 7,978 (5,692-10,265). If the Executive Order were implemented earlier, greater numbers of infections and deaths would have been…
October 27, 2020
Effect of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the United States
An agent-based model applied to New York City (NYC), Milwaukee metro area, and Dane County, WI shows that the timing of and adherence to social distancing measures could have major effects on COVID-19 occurrence. Implementing measures in NYC 1 week earlier would have reduced the number of cases by 80%, while a 1-week delay in…
October 23, 2020
The Temporal Association of Introducing and Lifting Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions with the Time-Varying Reproduction Number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: A Modelling Study across 131 Countries
A modeling study of the impacts of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the level of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (measured as R) found that school and workplace closures, public events bans, and other social distancing requirements were associated with reduced R, though this was only significant for public events bans. The effect of introducing and…
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