Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
October 23, 2020
Modeling COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States
An Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model suggests that universal mask use in the United States could save an additional 129,574 lives from September 22, 2020 through the end of February 2021, or an additional 95,814 lives assuming 85% mask adoption, when compared to the reference scenario. Three possible boundary scenarios were delineated:…
October 22, 2020
Is “No Test Is Better than a Bad Test”? Impact of Diagnostic Uncertainty in Mass Testing on the Spread of COVID-19
Gray et al. suggest that tests for SARS-CoV-2 with poor sensitivity and specificity could be potentially worse than not implementing tests at all in a model-based analysis. The model scenarios include no lockdown, immunity passports, and incremental relaxation. Tests, even if highly sensitive, are not sufficient to prevent widespread infection in the no lockdown scenario….
A Minimal Model for Household Effects in Epidemics
In incorporating household effects in epidemiologic modeling frameworks, Huber et al. show that R0 depends on household size linearly for small households and as a square root of size for larger households. [EDITORIAL NOTE: A pre-print of this manuscript was summarized in the Lit Rep on July 13, 2020.] Huber et al. (Oct 21, 2020)….
October 16, 2020
A Model-Based Evaluation of the Efficacy of COVID-19 Social Distancing, Testing and Hospital Triage Policies
A model examining the effects of policy choices regarding social distancing, testing, and hospital triaging found that the most successful practices for reducing COVID-19 mortality were social distancing, increasing test availability while reducing the delay between administration and results, and prioritizing the care of the least-severely infected patients. The model simulated how SARS-CoV-2 spreads in…
October 14, 2020
Understanding the Los Angeles County Coronavirus Epidemic The Critical Role of Intrahousehold Transmission
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Household structure may play a role in the persistent propagation of COVID-19 epidemic, as suggested by a modeling study describing three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic in Los Angeles County. The model showed that during phase I (March 1-April 4), initial seeding of infection in relatively affluent areas was followed by radial…
October 13, 2020
Using an Agent-Based Model to Assess K-12 School Reopenings Under Different COVID-19 Spread Scenarios – United States, School Year 2020/21
An agent-based model that simulated communities from K-12 schools across the US found that the percentage of individuals with symptomatic COVID-19 significantly decreased by as much as 75% in scenarios where students returned to school in non-overlapping split cohorts. Depending upon community factors like initial level of COVID-19 incidence and number of workplaces open for…
The Impact of Social Distancing on COVID19 Spread: State of Georgia Case Study
Results from an agent-based simulation model parametrized with data on Georgia population interactions and demographics over 7.5 months suggests that shelter-in-place followed by voluntary quarantine substantially reduced COVID-19 infections, resource needs, and severe outcomes. The combination reduced peak infections from approximately 180,000 under no intervention to below 53,000, and delayed the peak from April to…
Inter-Region Transfers for Pandemic Surges
A modeling study evaluating potential hospital bed shortages during COVID-19 surges found that inter-region transfers could alleviate regional bed shortfalls. In the worst-case scenarios in the study, national bed shortfalls ranged from 669 to 58,562 inpatient beds and 3,208 to 31,190 ICU beds. Average transfer distances that would be required to address these shortfalls ranged…
The Impact of Mask-Wearing and Shelter-in-Place on COVID-19 Outbreaks in the United States
Non-medical mask-wearing by 75% of the population in one modeling study reduced infections by 38%, hospitalizations by 44%, and deaths by 47% in the absence of a shelter-in-place strategy. In combination with mask-wearing, sheltering people aged 50 to 64 decreased deaths by more than 82%. The authors noted that in this model, wearing masks with…
October 12, 2020
Safely Reopening K-12 Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed]A modeling study of different school reopening plans indicated that plans that provide for multiple days in school in a row and divide students into smaller cohorts, as well as those that emphasize distance learning, are better able to suppress outbreaks and reduce risk if an individual with COVID-19 enters the community….
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