Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
October 12, 2020
Age-Targeted Dose Allocation Can Halve COVID-19 Vaccine Requirements
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] An age-structured mathematical model investigating age-specific allocation strategies for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines indicated that across 179 countries, the highest priority individuals for vaccination were typically those 30-59 years of age, based on their higher risk of infection and disease, and greater rates of contact. The model assumed that the vaccine would be 70%…
An Innovative Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention to Mitigate SARS-CoV02 Spread Probability Sampling to Identify and Isolate Asymptomatic Cases
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Results from one modelling study suggest that a Sampling-Testing-Quarantine strategy for identifying and isolating asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19 may help slow the spread of the epidemic without school or work shutdowns. An agent-based model was designed to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic in Seattle, in order to test the strategy. The strategy involves…
October 8, 2020
Effect of School Closures on Mortality from Coronavirus Disease 2019: Old and New Predictions
Simulations of SARS-CoV-2 spread in the UK using the CovidSim code, with data available in March 2020, show that prompt interventions like school closures and isolation of younger people would reduce peak demand for ICU beds, but result in a greater number of deaths in second and subsequent waves of infections. The authors note this…
October 7, 2020
State-Level Needs for Social Distancing and Contact Tracing to Contain COVID-19 in the United States
A modeling study estimated that during the shelter-in-place period (11 April–29 May 2020), most US states and the District of Columbia maintained the SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number below 1. Following relaxations of social-distancing measures, by 22 July 2020, 42 states and the District of Columbia had >75% probability of a rebound period of increased transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Curtailing the epidemic…
Updating Herd Immunity Models for the U.S. in 2020 Implications for the COVID-19 Response
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study found that accounting for variations in contact patterns throughout the US leads to a lower estimate of the threshold for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 compared to models that assume even mixing of populations. Sheils et al. (Oct 6, 2020). Updating Herd Immunity Models for the U.S. in 2020 Implications…
October 5, 2020
Community Venue Exposure Risk Estimator for the COVID-19 Pandemic
Sun et al. developed a probability model to estimate the county-level community exposure risk during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. The model had three inputs: the real-time number of active and asymptomatic cases, the population in local communities, and the customer counts in public places. They reported that between April 1 and July 15,…
October 1, 2020
Reductions in 2020 US Life Expectancy Due to COVID-19 and the Disproportionate Impact on the Black and Latino Populations
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Black and Latino people in the US are estimated to have a reduction in life expectancy at birth due to COVID-19 of 2.7 and 3.7 years, respectively, both of which are larger than the 0.84-year reduction for white people. These projections imply a 50% increase (from 3.6 to 5.5 years) in the…
September 30, 2020
The Potential Contribution of Face Coverings to the Control of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Schools and Broader Society in the UK a Modelling Study
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study shows that adoption of masks in secondary schools and community settings under current test-trace-isolate (TTI) levels could reduce the size of a second wave in the UK but not prevent it. Under current tracing levels, and at effective mask coverage of 30%, 46% of those with symptomatic infection would…
COVID-19 among People Experiencing Homelessness in England: A Modelling Study
A modeling study found that continuing measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection among people experiencing homelessness would result in a small projected number of cases and deaths (1754 infections, 31 deaths) in the context of a second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population (June 2020 to January 2021). However, in a scenario with no…
Comparison of Infection Control Strategies to Reduce COVID-19 Outbreaks in Homeless Shelters in the United States a Simulation Study
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A microsimulation model calibrated to PCR data from outbreaks in 5 homeless shelters found that while infection control strategies can prevent outbreaks in low-risk settings, they may be unlikely to do so in high-risk settings. The model found that in shelters with low (R0 = 1.5), moderate (R0 = 2.9), and high…
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