Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
May 4, 2021
Modeling the Transmission of Covid-19. Journal of Public Health Management and Practice
A transmission model of a pre-K-12 US school setting found that even in the context of low community incidence of SARS-CoV-2, mitigation strategies and contact tracing with a net effectiveness of 27% could result in 75% of the school population being infected within 6 months. The model is based on the CDC COVIDTracer modeling tool….
May 3, 2021
Quality-Adjusted Life-Year Losses Averted With Every COVID-19 Infection Prevented in the United States
Averting one SARS-CoV-2 infection among a representative US resident would generate an additional 0.061 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (0.055 for the patient; 0.006 for the patient’s family members) according to a probabilistic simulation model informed by CDC COVID-19 estimates. Preventing one infection would result in a total of 1.51 total QALYs gained over a longer time…
April 29, 2021
Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False Negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID-19 Spread
A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to a university population with 50% asymptomatic infections suggests that temporal viral load dynamics, which account for viral loads below detectable levels prior to symptom onset, could result in false negative rates of 17-48%. The authors suggest that models that do not account for the effect of this undetectable period…
April 26, 2021
Rapid Vaccination and Early Partial Lockdown Minimizes 4th Waves from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants
A model calibrated to King County, Washington that includes the increased transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant, and local policy changes regarding openings and restrictions, found a new subsequent wave of infections was permitted in all scenarios. However, the new wave had fewer deaths expected compared to the prior wave due to vaccination of people at…
Simulated Identification of Silent COVID-19 Infections Among Children and Estimated Future Infection Rates With Vaccination
A modeling study determined that, in the absence of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines available to children, identifying 10-20% of “silent” or asymptomatic infections among children within 3 days after infection would reduce attack rates below 5% if only adults were vaccinated. Using an age-structured disease transmission model parameterized with census data, the study also found that if…
April 22, 2021
When Can We Safely Return to Normal A Novel Method for Identifying Safe Levels of NPIs in the Context of COVID-19 Vaccinations
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A transmission model with vaccination parameters calibrated to the state of Colorado suggests that complete relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) within the next year when vaccination uptake is ≤70% still risks exceeding hospitalization thresholds. The model also suggests that decisions to relax NPIs should account for regional heterogeneity in transmission and travel,…
April 14, 2021
School Closures Reduced Social Mixing of Children during COVID-19 with Implications for Transmission Risk and School Reopening Policies
A modeling study using data on children’s social contacts found that closures of elementary schools in spring 2020 in the Bay Area of California averted comparatively fewer cases than closures of middle and high schools and workplaces. The authors hypothesize this relatively smaller reduction in averted cases may be due to elementary school children having…
The Balancing Role of Distribution Speed against Varying Efficacy Levels of COVID-19 Vaccines under Variants
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Vaccines with lower efficacy can reduce population-level transmission more than vaccines with higher efficacy if distribution of lower efficacy vaccines was comparatively faster based on findings from a modeling study. A vaccine with 65% and 60% efficacy before and after the variants, respectively, can outperform a vaccine with 95% and 90% efficacy,…
April 9, 2021
The Lockdown Effect: A Counterfactual for Sweden
A modeling study simulated the potential effects of a stricter, government-imposed lockdown policy in Sweden, a country that did not impose such a lockdown in early 2020. The authors compared COVID-related deaths, SARS-CoV-2 infections, and change in national GDP in Sweden from March 15-May 17, 2020 to a weighted average of similar neighboring countries that…
Time-Dependent Heterogeneity Leads to Transient Suppression of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Not Herd Immunity
A theoretical modeling study demonstrates how population-level heterogeneity in susceptibility to an infectious disease produces a phenomenon called “transient collective immunity”, which may lead to a temporary and misleading decrease in cases before reaching a wider and lasting herd immunity threshold. In the COVID-19 pandemic, persons highly susceptible to infection due to biological or social…
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