Article Summary
January 6, 2021
Optimizing Vaccine Allocation for COVID-19 Vaccines Critical Role of Single-Dose Vaccination
[Pre-print, not-peer reviewed] Utilizing an age-stratified mathematical model, a study of vaccine allocation strategy suggested that maintaining current social distancing interventions and speedy vaccine deployment were important, and the optimal allocation of vaccine depends on the single-dose efficacy (SDE). If SDE is high, single-dose vaccination would be the optimal use of vaccine under most scenarios…
A Method for Prioritizing Risk Groups for Early SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination, By the Numbers
[Pre-print, not-peer reviewed] A logistic regression model to predict COVID-19 case and death risk by age, race, and sex found that if the 17 demographic groups at highest risk of death from COVID-19 were prioritized for vaccination, it would require only 3.7% of the vaccine supply needed to vaccinate all the United States, and yet…
Genomic Evidence of In-Flight Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Despite Predeparture Testing
Genomic analysis of viral SARS-CoV-2 isolates obtained during a mandatory quarantine period after a Dubai-to-New Zealand flight demonstrate clear evidence of in-flight transmission. Among 86 passengers on a flight that arrived on September 29, 7 individuals in managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) had positive test results during the quarantine period. Passengers originated from 5 different…
The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social-Distancing Behavior in the United States
Statewide stay-at-home policies had the strongest effect on reducing out-of-home mobility and increased the time people spent at home, according to a study employing difference-in-difference and event-study methodologies. Limits on restaurants and bars were the next highest ranked policy that increased presence at home. The other 4 policies assessed (limited stay-at-home orders, non-essential business closures,…
Assessing Mandatory Stay‐at‐Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID‐19
A study evaluating the effects of mandatory stay-at-home and business closure policies found that implementing any non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) was associated with significant reductions in case growth in 9 of 10 study countries, including South Korea and Sweden which only implemented less restrictive NPIs. After subtracting the epidemic and less restrictive NPI effects, the study…
January 5, 2021
Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands
There was a 41% excess in deaths in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 epidemic. While the excess in deaths recorded during the COVID-19 epidemic were comparable to the 18% excess during a more severe influenza epidemic during 2017-18, the COVID-19 excess deaths occurred in a shorter time frame, were characterized by a higher peak, and…
Validity of the National Health Security Preparedness Index as a Predictor of Excess COVID-19 Mortality
A tool developed by the Center for Disease Control to measure the United States capacity for responding to public health emergencies (the National Health Security Preparedness Index (NHSPI)) poorly predicted excess COVID-19 mortality rates during the first 6 months of the pandemic. State- and territorial-level excess mortality rates for all 50 states and Puerto Rico…
Data-Driven Reopening of Urban Public Education Through Chicago’s Tracking of COVID-19 School Transmission
Data from COVID-19 contact tracing conducted in a large urban private school system in Chicago show that the attack rate for those participating in in-person learning was lower than working-age adults (0.2% for students and 0.5% for staff, compared to 0.7% for working age adults). Data were collected during August to October 2020, during a…
How Vaccination and Contact Isolation Might Interact to Suppress Transmission of Covid-19 a DCM Study
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A dynamic causal model parametrized to the UK population suggests that 15 million people (roughly 50,000 per day) would need to be vaccinated by December 2021 and combined with enhanced contact tracing to achieve a 50% herd immunity threshold. With current rates of contact tracing, 24 million people (36% of the…
Risk Factors Associated With All-Cause 30-Day Mortality in Nursing Home Residents With COVID-19
A cohort study of 5,256 nursing home residents with COVID-19 found that increased age, male sex, and impaired cognitive and physical function were independent risk factors for all-cause 30-day mortality. Residents aged 80-84 years had 1.5-times the risk of death compared to those aged 75-79 years. Women were 31% less likely to die than men….
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