Article Summary
July 16, 2020
Factors Associated With Death in Critically Ill Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the US
In a US multicenter cohort study of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU (n=2,215), independent risk factors associated with 28 day mortality included older age (≥80 vs <40 years of age: OR=11.15), male sex (OR=1.50), obesity (BMI ≥40 vs <25: OR=1.51), coronary artery disease (OR=1.47), active cancer (OR=2.15), and acute organ dysfunction (OR=2.43 to 2.61). Patients admitted to a hospital with fewer ICU beds had a higher risk of death (<50 vs ≥100…
Risk Factors Associated With Mortality Among Patients With COVID-19 in Intensive Care Units in Lombardy, Italy
In a retrospective cohort study of critically ill patients admitted to ICUs in Italy (n=3,988), independent risk factors associated with mortality included older age (HR=1.75), male sex (HR=1.57), history of COPD (HR = 1.68), history of diabetes (HR=1.18), hypercholesterolemia (HR=1.25), and poor respiratory status at ICU admission, as defined by three measures. The hospital mortality rate as of May 30 was 12 per 1000 patient…
Smart Pooling AI-Powered COVID-19 Testing
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Escobar et al. developed a pooling method for SARS-CoV-2 testing protocols that uses machine learning to predict the probability of a negative result from sociodemographic data. The technique was most efficient at lower disease prevalence, and showed efficiency gains of 42% with respect to individual testing at disease prevalence up to 25%. Escobar et al. (July 15,…
Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Amongst Residents and Staff at a Skilled Nursing Facility: Results of Real-Time PCR and Serologic Testing
Universal testing of a skilled nursing facility without a known case of COVID-19 in Massachusetts revealed an 85% prevalence of COVID-19 among residents (n=97) and 37% among participating staff (n=97) during a serial testing program over approximately one week. The facility had universal masking, temperature checks and symptom screen procedures in place for staff for at least two weeks prior to…
Comparison of the COVID-19 Infection Risks by Close Contact and Aerosol Transmission
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Simulation modeling based on fluid dynamics models and mouse experimental models was used to estimate that the median infection risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 via aerosol exposure for one hour was more than three orders of magnitude lower than the risk due to close contact (13% based on a meta-analysis). Zhang and Wang. (July 15, 2020). Comparison of the COVID-19 Infection Risks…
Mechanistic Transmission Modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Demonstrates the Importance of Aerosol Transmission
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Iterative simulation modeling indicated that aerosol inhalation was likely the dominant contributor to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship outbreak. Azimi et al. (July 15, 2020). Mechanistic Transmission Modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Demonstrates the Importance of Aerosol Transmission. Pre-print downloaded July 16 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.13.20153049
July 15, 2020
Outbreak of COVID-19 and Interventions in One of the Largest Jails in the United States Cook County IL 2020
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] During March 1-April 30, 907 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were detected among detained persons (n = 628) and staff (n = 279) in the Cook County Jail (Chicago) and there were 9 deaths. Programmatic activity and visitation stopped on March 9, and cells were converted into single occupancy beginning March 26. Universal masking was implemented for staff (April 2) and…
Impact of COVID-19 on 2020 US Life Expectancy for the Black and Latino Populations
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Andrasfay and Goldman used COVID-19 projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and estimated a reduction in life expectancy at birth due to COVID-19 of greater than 1.5 years for Black and Latino populations, which is one year larger than the reduction for whites. This would be a 30% increase (from 3.6…
COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) team used an SEIR model to estimate trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions at the state level from July 5 to December 31 2020. The model projects that cumulative total deaths across the US could reach 430,494 (288,046–649,582) by December 31st, 2020. Greater than 60% of the deaths projected in this scenario would occur in five states: California,…
Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms and Associated Comorbidity During the COVID‐19 Pandemic in Ireland: A Population‐Based Study
In a nationally representative sample of 1,041 adults from the general population of the Republic of Ireland, the rate of COVID-19-related posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was 18%. Of individuals who screened positive for PTSD, 54% met the criteria for depression, 50% for generalized anxiety disorder, and 60% for either depression or anxiety. COVID-19-related PTSD was associated with younger age, male…
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