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May 27, 2020
Sample Pooling as a Strategy of SARS-COV-2 Nucleic Acid Screening Increases the False-Negative Rate
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Gan et al. diluted three SARS-CoV-2 positive samples (2 with high viral load and 1 with low viral load) with 8,094 negative samples or double distilled water to form RNA pools. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in pools from high viral load samples up to 1/1000 dilution, while the low viral load sample could only be observed at a low dilution ratio. Based on…
Clinical Utility of SARS-CoV-2 Whole Genome Sequencing in Deciphering Source of Infection
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Takenouchi et al used whole viral genome sequencing to determine that 9 COVID-19 patients at a tertiary medical center had probable community infection instead of being associated with infection clusters at the medical center. Takenouchi et al. (May 26, 2020). Clinical Utility of SARS-CoV-2 Whole Genome Sequencing in Deciphering Source of Infection. Pre-print downloaded May 27 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.21.20107599
Correlation between viral RNA shedding and serum antibodies in COVID-19 patients
Jin et al. found that among SARS-CoV-2 infection cases (n=89), serum IgM was significantly higher among those with prolonged viral RNA shedding (>30 days) at weeks 4 and 5 after symptom onset, IgM levels were similar between prolonged and non-prolonged shedders from weeks 6 to 8, and declined almost to the reference level in both groups at week 8. Serum IgM persisted at a high level during the acute illness and up to 8 weeks after symptom onset. Jin et al. (May 18, 2020). Correlation…
SARS-CoV-2 RNA Detected in Blood Samples from Patients with COVID-19 Is Not Associated with Infectious Virus
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detectable in blood samples at low viral loads up to 20 days after symptom onset in 27 of 212 (12.7%) COVID-19 cases. However, there was no evidence of infectious SARS-CoV-2 based on inoculating PCR-positive sera into cell culture. Andersson et al. (May 26, 2020). SARS-CoV-2 RNA Detected in Blood Samples from Patients with COVID-19 Is Not Associated with Infectious Virus. Pre-print downloaded May 27 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.21.20105486
Do Face Masks Create a False Sense of Security A COVID-19 Dilemma
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Yan et al. use SafeGraph smart device location data and show that the representative American in states that have facemask mandates spends 20-30 minutes less time at home and makes an increased number of visits to commercial locations following the mandate. The authors suggest that this is due to substitution behavior and could lead to a resurgence of cases. Yan et al. (May 27, 2020). Do Face Masks Create a False…
Are We #stayinghome to Flatten the Curve
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Statewide stay-at-home policies induced “mandate effects” of 4.1%-5.9% declines in travel and visits to non-essential businesses relative to pre-COVID-19 levels for the first four states to introduce such policies (CA, IL, NJ, NY). By the time of statewide stay-at-home mandates in many states, residents had already reduced travel by considerable amounts relative to pre-COVID-19 levels. …
Modeling Countermeasures for a Balanced Reopening in King County, Washington
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Rosenfeld et al. use a new model (Covasim) to simulate population-level SARS-CoV-2 transmission expected with reopening and the extent to which measures including testing, tracing, and quarantine can prevent exponential growth in King County, WA. Distancing and other measures have reduced the transmission potential of COVID-19 on April 25th to 33% (30-37%) of early-pandemic levels. Increased testing, contact tracing to home and work, and better compliance with household quarantine…
May 26, 2020
Super-Spreader Businesses and Risk of COVID-19 Transmission
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] O’Donoghue et al. classified businesses by their transmission risk based on the frequency and duration of visits and square footage of businesses pre-pandemic (2019) in 8 states (New England, New York, California). Using this information they classified businesses as potential “super-spreaders.” In a county-level analysis they quantified the relationship between the density of super-spreader businesses and COVID-19 cases and found…
COVID-19 Confirmed Case Incidence Age Shift to Young Persons Age 0-19 and 20-39 Years Over Time Washington State March – April 2020
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] A longitudinal cohort study found that from March 1 to April 19, 2020, the age distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Washington State shifted, with a 10% decline in cases 60 years or older and a 20% increase in cases 0-39 years old. After the peak (March 22), there was no decline among cases 0-19 years…
Epidemic Model Guided Machine Learning for COVID-19 Forecasts in the United States
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Zou et al. propose the SuEIR model, which extends the SEIR model by accounting for untested/unreported cases of COVID-19, and train this model using machine learning algorithms. Forecasts from the model predict the peak dates of the outbreak in the US (June 1), New York State (May 10), and California (July 1). Estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0) are 2.5 for the US, 3.6 for New York, and 2.2 for California. Results…
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