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February 4, 2020
The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application
Incubation periods were assessed by Lauer, et al. based on 101 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure windows from outside Hubei province (other parts of China plus globally). Case were 62% male with a mean age of 52 years. Mean incubation period: 5.2 days (95% CI, 4.4, 6.0 days) 95% of persons developed symptoms within 10.5…
Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed
Science news reports that the NEJM article on asymptomatic transmission erred in describing the infected traveler from China as asymptomatic. Follow-up by regional authorities in Germany found that the traveler did have respiratory and other symptoms while in Germany. An update in the NEJM is expected soon. Kupferschmidt K (Feb 3, 2020, 5:30 PM) Study…
February 3, 2020
Importation and Human-to-Human Transmission of a Novel Coronavirus in Vietnam
This article provides additional information on a father-son pair from Vietnam, reported earlier The father was a 65 year-old with a history of hypertension, type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and lung cancer. He became ill with fever on 17 January, 2020, and was admitted to hospital through the ED on 22 January. His condition…
The novel coronavirus 2019 (2019-nCoV) uses the SARS-1 coronavirus receptor ACE2 and the cellular protease TMPRSS2 for entry into target cells
M Hoffman, et al. found that 2019-nCoV uses the same receptor, ACE2, used by SARS viruses to invade host cells; and that another cellular protease may be part of the process, presenting another potential target for therapy. They also consider how similarities with SARS may translate to 2019-nCoV transmission and pathogenicity. Sera from a convalescent…
Reconciling early-outbreak preliminary estimates of the baseline reproductive number and its uncertainty: a new framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak
SW Park, et al. assess preliminary basic reproductive number (R0) estimates in several reported modeling approaches. They identify improved information on generation interval (time from when an individual is infected to when they infect another individual) as a key parameter to improve R0 estimates. The pooled estimate of R0 constructed using their defined approach is…
The digestive system is a potential route of 2019-nCov infection: a bioinformatics analysis based on single-cell transcriptomes
H Zhang, et al propose a potential digestive system route of transmission, based on gene expression data related to angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2) in human tissues from lung, esophagus, stomach, ileum, and colon. Among ACE2-expressing cells in the tissue types assessed, ACE2 expression was found to be highest in the ileum and colon. ACE2…
January 31, 2020
Evolution and variation of 2019-novel coronavirus
A new phylogenetic study suggests that there may have been two different viral strains of 2019-nCoV circulating as early as a few months prior to the initial detection of the outbreak. Evidence also indicates that the Huanan seafood market at the center of early surveillance efforts may in fact not have been the primary starting…
Potential inhibitors for 20192019-nCoV coronavirus M protease from clinically approved medicines
An assessment of commercially available medications found up to 10 that may be useful in treating 2019-nCoV. Liu and Wang (Jan 29, 2020). Potential inhibitors for 20192019-nCoV coronavirus M protease from clinically approved medicines. Pre Print. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.29.924100v1
Breaking down of healthcare system: Mathematical modelling for controlling the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in Wuhan, China
Researchers estimated burden on isolation and intensive care units in Wuhan accounting for the effect of successful public health intervention and diagnosis rates. With a 50% diagnosis rate and in the absence of any public health intervention efforts, the number of infected cases is anticipated to exceed other reported estimates (as of Jan 31), producing…
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
Using available data, researchers estimated the number of cases that have already been exported from Wuhan to other Chinese cities and forecasted the spread within and outside of mainland China. They estimate an R0 of 2.69 (95% CI: 2.47-2.86) and, as of Jan 25, 75,815 infections (95% CI: 37,304-130,330) in Wuhan alone. Findings suggest a…
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