Article Summary
January 31, 2020
Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Epidemiologic characteristics of confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in China up to January 23 were used to produce time-dependent reproductive numbers. Findings suggest that the rate at which secondary cases are appearing may have been decreasing over the last few weeks. Liu et al. (Jan 26, 2020). Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Pre-Print. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v1
Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model
Researchers constructed a model to assess the effectiveness of three control measures (isolation of ill persons, restricted human mobility, and improving treatment) at reducing the spread of the outbreak. Findings suggest that public health interventions that restrict movement remain necessary, particularly if asymptomatic transmission is widespread (which has yet to be determined). Shao and Shan…
The Novel Coronavirus Originating in Wuhan, China Challenges for Global Health Governance
In this commentary, authors discuss the use of a cordon sanitaire (cordoned off area where movement is restricted) in Wuhan and suggestions for slowing the spread of the outbreak, including the issues associated with involuntary social isolation. Phelan et al. (Jan 30, 2020). The Novel Coronavirus Originating in Wuhan, China Challenges for Global Health Governance….
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
On 1/28 potential asymptomatic transmission of 2019-nCoV was identified in Germany. A new report indicates a second person was infected by the same asymptomatic traveler from China. The virus seems to have been transmitted during the index patient’s incubation period. Once symptoms did develop, the index patient experiences brief and nonspecific symptoms. High sputum viral…
January 30, 2020
Australia scientists claim first re-creation of coronavirus outside China
An Australian lab has successfully grown the 2019-nCoV in cell culture. This will support vaccine development and development of antibody testing methods for asymptomatic individuals. Available from (Jan 30, 2020): https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-australia-idUSL4N29X3XX
Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR
Researchers present a new diagnostic workflow that does not rely on having virus material available. It reliably detects 2019-nCoV and can discriminate from SARS-CoV. Corman, et al. (Jan 30, 2020). Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR. EuroSurveillance. https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000045
Updated understanding of the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China
Updated descriptive epidemiology is provided for the outbreak. While the authors provide an estimated case fatality of 2.84% overall, this was calculated from an outdated estimate of 1,975 cases in mainland China. The first 17 deaths reported by the China national Health Commission are described clinically. The majority (13/17) were male with median age of…
Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Researchers aimed to quantify the effectiveness of traveler screening for 2019-nCoV. Even under ideal screening assumptions, around half of infected travelers are likely to be missed. Most missed cases are asymptomatic, undetectable, and unaware of their exposure. The paper offers helpful visuals to support decision making. An interactive Shiny App is available as well. Gostic…
Risk of 2019 novel coronavirus importations throughout China prior to the Wuhan quarantine
Using ground, rail, and air travel data, researchers estimated the risk of 2019-nCoV exportation from Wuhan to other Chinese cities prior to the enforced quarantine in Wuhan. Among other findings, the model identified several high-risk cities (due to transportation patterns) throughout China currently have undetected cases. Du et al. (Jan 30, 2020). Risk of 2019…
Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020
The epidemiologic characteristics of cases of 2019-nCoV identified as of Jan 22, 2020 by health authorities are described. Graphics and tables are valuable resources worth reviewing. Case fatality among hospitalized patients was estimated at 14% (95% CI: 3.9–32%), though caution should be used in interpreting this as duration of hospitalization prior to death can be…
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