Article Summary
January 30, 2020
Potential of large ‘first generation’ human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV
A Wuhan-based research team studied the genetic diversity, origin, and evolution of the 2019-nCoV outbreak in china and Thailand (Bangkok) using likelihood-mapping and phylogenetic analysis. They estimate that the common ancestor of the virus originated in Wuhan on November 9, 2019 (95% CI: Sep 25-Dec 19. 2019). There is some evidence that super-spreaders may have…
January 29, 2020
Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
All 99 cases identified from Jan 1 – Jan 20, 2020 at a single Wuhan hospital confirmed by RT-PCR are described. Patients who died aligned with the MuLBSTA score for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. 49% had exposure to the Huanan seafood market 51% had chronic diseases Clinical manifestations: fever (83%), cough (82%), shortness of…
Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event
Researchers in Greece aimed to characterize genetic relationships and to identify the presumed recombination within the sarbecovirus subgenus. Similar to other studies, they found around 96% similarity between 2019-nCoV and BatCoV RaTG13, associated with bats from Yunnan Province. Results indicate that this virus is not the result of a recent recombination event. Results still point…
Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding
Samples from nine patients, eight with Wuhan travel history, were evaluated. Genome sequence identity between patients was 99.98%. 2019-nCoV had 88% sequence identity (similarity) with two SARS-like coronaviruses with bat origin but was less similar to SARS-CoV (79%) and MERS-CoV (50%). Receptor-binding domain structure was similar to SARS-CoV. In line with other studies, the virus…
The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections among travelers from Wuhan, China
Based on travel history and symptom onset of 34 confirmed cases detected outside of Wuhan during Jan 20-23, researchers estimated a mean incubation period of 5.8 days (95% CI, 4.6-7.9) with a range of 1.3-11.3 days. These cases were likely infected in Wuhan. Details for modeling the incubation period are included as well as a…
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
Researchers provide demographic characteristics, exposure history, and epidemic for 425 laboratory-confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV reported prior to Jan 22, 2020 divided over three time periods: cases with illness onset prior to Jan 1, onset Jan 1-Jan 11, and onset Jan 12 or after. Patients with earlier onset were more likely to report exposure to the…
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.
Researchers modeled confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China from Jan 10-Jan 24. They estimated an R0 of 2.24-3.35. Zhao et al. (Jan 29, 2020). Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Pre-Print. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395
Epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infection: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data
Using publicly available case data in official reports from government institutes, researchers used modelling techniques to estimate: Incubation period of 2-9 days with a median incubation period of 4-5 days. Median time from illness onset to hospitalization = 3 days Recommended length of isolation and quarantine should be at least 9 days. Median time delay…
This modeling study indicates that 2019-nCoV has a higher 2 effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate.
Using daily case reports from China CDC, researchers estimate the effective reproductive number (R, not R0) for 2019-nCoV. R is the number of secondary cases expected for each infectious case once an epidemic is already underway. R is estimated as 4.08, compared to SARS-CoV in Beijing (2.76) and Guangzhou (3.01). They also predict the future…
Germany confirms human transmission of coronavirus
Limited information is available about potential person-to-person transmission in Germany. A person who had not travelled to China was diagnosed with 2019-nCoV after attending a company training with a colleague from China. The Chinese colleague had recently been visited by family who came from Wuhan. It appears that transmission between the traveler and the German…
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