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Tag: modeling prediction
March 17, 2021
A Modeling Study to Inform Screening and Testing Interventions for the Control of SARS-CoV-2 on University Campuses
A model developed for COVID mitigation upon the return of students to school at Emory University concluded that screening at least weekly would be required to ensure substantial case reductions. According to a “susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered” (SEIR) model, monthly and weekly screening among the approximately 30,000 students could reduce SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence (CI) by 59% and 87%,…
March 15, 2021
Model-Based Evaluation of School- and Non-School-Related Measures to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic
An age-structured SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fitted to data from the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands suggested that if methods to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) of non-school-based contacts with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still near 1, school-based prevention measures may be beneficial, particularly among older students. The authors provide examples from…
Modeling the Use of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination to Safely Relax Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A transmission model suggested that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be safely relaxed in the US 2-9 months after the initial vaccine rollout, and that vaccinated individuals can begin to relax NPIs sooner than unvaccinated individuals, reducing deaths and peak health system burden. If a vaccination rate of 3 million doses/day were achieved,…
February 26, 2021
The Public Health Impact of Delaying a Second Dose of the BNT162b2 or MRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An agent-based model estimated the impact of a strategy of delaying a second COVID-19 vaccine dose on cumulative mortality and found that a delayed second dose approach could result in reduced cumulative mortality under certain conditions, particularly in people under 65 years of age. The model was constructed using a simulated population…
Stepping Back to School: A Step-by-Step Look at COVID Introduction, Spread, and Exportation
[Report, not peer-reviewed] Covasim, a model previously used to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission among inter-personal contacts in King County, Washington predicted that the rate of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into K-12 school classroom settings is proportional to the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. The model is an agent-based model of contacts at home, school, work and…
February 23, 2021
Association of the Timing of School Closings and Behavioral Changes With the Evolution of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in the US
A model using population-based data from US states suggests that voluntary behavioral changes, such as reducing time at work, could have up to a 3-fold higher impact on reducing COVID-19 incidence compared to school closures. Each day earlier that school closures were implemented was associated with a 3.5% reduction in incidence, whereas each day earlier…
February 22, 2021
Inflight Transmission of COVID-19 Based on Experimental Aerosol Dispersion Data
A study simulating aerosol dispersion in a B77-200 aircraft to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection probability calculated that the MID-AFT (economy class) portion of the cabin exhibited the highest infection probability, with the average individual infection probability (without masks) for a 2-hour flight in this section varying from 0.1% for a ‘Mild Scenario’ to 2.5% for a…
February 17, 2021
Real-Time Prediction of COVID-19 Related Mortality Using Electronic Health Records
The COVID-19 early warning system (CovEWS), a risk assessment system tool for real-time forecasting of COVID-19 related mortality risk, was found to predict mortality up to 192 hours prior to mortality events in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. The model was constructed from a variety of clinical and biomarker inputs and at a sensitivity of greater…
February 11, 2021
Modeling Effectiveness of Testing Strategies to Prevent COVID-19 in Nursing Homes —United States, 2020
A model calibrated to US nursing homes suggests that 54% SARS-CoV-2 infections could be prevented by instituting weekly testing with a 2-day turnaround for all staff and residents immediately following detection of an index case (i.e. outbreak testing). Increasing the frequency of testing and reducing the turnaround to daily testing with immediate results could further…
February 8, 2021
Prioritizing Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines Based on Social Contacts Increases Vaccination Effectiveness
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Using an agent-based modeling approach integrating social contact networks in Virginia, spatiotemporal surveillance data on COVID-19 cases, and models of within- and between-host disease dynamics, Chen et al. showed that vaccine allocation based on the number of an individuals’ social contacts and total social proximity time was significantly more effective at reducing the number…
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