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Tag: modeling prediction
November 2, 2020
The Effect of Eviction Moratoriums on the Transmission of SARS-CoV-2
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Evictions led to significant increases in SARS-CoV-2 infections in a model simulating changes in housing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the model scenario for Philadelphia, a city with historically high eviction rates, the increase was especially pronounced as it considered a heterogenous city with frequent contacts between residents. The model indicated…
Quantifying the Impact of Public Health Protection Measures on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2
A study from France modeling the effectiveness of public health measures to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (aside from strict lockdown) found that mask mandates and restricting access to public places such as bars reduced the number of new cases per day by 75% and delayed a peak in infections by about 2 months. However,…
October 30, 2020
Projected COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States in the Context of the Effectiveness of a Potential Vaccine and Implications for Social Distancing and Face Mask Use
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Findings from a study using a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California) indicated that in the absence of a vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 transmission could be slowed in these states by adherence to strict social distancing guidelines and widespread face mask…
October 28, 2020
Effects of New York’s Executive Order on Face Mask Use on COVID-19 Infections and Mortality A Modeling Study
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] According to estimates from a modeling study, the Executive Order issued by New York State mandating mask use reduced the number of COVID-19 infections by 99,517 (95% CIs: 72,723-126,312) and COVID-related deaths by 7,978 (5,692-10,265). If the Executive Order were implemented earlier, greater numbers of infections and deaths would have been…
October 23, 2020
The Temporal Association of Introducing and Lifting Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions with the Time-Varying Reproduction Number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: A Modelling Study across 131 Countries
A modeling study of the impacts of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the level of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (measured as R) found that school and workplace closures, public events bans, and other social distancing requirements were associated with reduced R, though this was only significant for public events bans. The effect of introducing and…
Modeling COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States
An Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model suggests that universal mask use in the United States could save an additional 129,574 lives from September 22, 2020 through the end of February 2021, or an additional 95,814 lives assuming 85% mask adoption, when compared to the reference scenario. Three possible boundary scenarios were delineated:…
October 22, 2020
A Minimal Model for Household Effects in Epidemics
In incorporating household effects in epidemiologic modeling frameworks, Huber et al. show that R0 depends on household size linearly for small households and as a square root of size for larger households. [EDITORIAL NOTE: A pre-print of this manuscript was summarized in the Lit Rep on July 13, 2020.] Huber et al. (Oct 21, 2020)….
October 20, 2020
Estimating the Infection-Fatality Risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the Spring 2020 Pandemic Wave: A Model-Based Analysis
A model-based analysis of the SAS-CoV-2 infection rate in New York City from March to June found an estimated overall infection fatality risk (IFR) of 1.4%. Stratified by age, overall IFR for those with ages 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, and 75+ years were 0.1%, 0.9%, 4.9%, and 14.2%, respectively. The peak weekly IFR for adults ages…
October 16, 2020
A Model-Based Evaluation of the Efficacy of COVID-19 Social Distancing, Testing and Hospital Triage Policies
A model examining the effects of policy choices regarding social distancing, testing, and hospital triaging found that the most successful practices for reducing COVID-19 mortality were social distancing, increasing test availability while reducing the delay between administration and results, and prioritizing the care of the least-severely infected patients. The model simulated how SARS-CoV-2 spreads in…
October 13, 2020
Using an Agent-Based Model to Assess K-12 School Reopenings Under Different COVID-19 Spread Scenarios – United States, School Year 2020/21
An agent-based model that simulated communities from K-12 schools across the US found that the percentage of individuals with symptomatic COVID-19 significantly decreased by as much as 75% in scenarios where students returned to school in non-overlapping split cohorts. Depending upon community factors like initial level of COVID-19 incidence and number of workplaces open for…
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