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Tag: modeling
May 6, 2021
Outbreaks of Covid-19 Variants in Prisons A Mathematical Modeling Analysis of Vaccination and Re-Opening Policies
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to California state prisons predicts that if a viral variant is introduced in a prison with moderate vaccine coverage, and no baseline immunity that has resumed pre-2020 contact levels, 23-74% of residents could be infected over 200 days. Cumulative infections may be reduced to 2-54% if high…
May 5, 2021
Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021
Data from six models forecasting US COVID-19 projections with the 50% more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant up to September 2021 found that across 4 scenarios with varying levels of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) use, cases would rise and peak through May 2021 and sharply decline by July 2021. High vaccination scenarios predicted a faster decline….
May 3, 2021
Quality-Adjusted Life-Year Losses Averted With Every COVID-19 Infection Prevented in the United States
Averting one SARS-CoV-2 infection among a representative US resident would generate an additional 0.061 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (0.055 for the patient; 0.006 for the patient’s family members) according to a probabilistic simulation model informed by CDC COVID-19 estimates. Preventing one infection would result in a total of 1.51 total QALYs gained over a longer time…
Individually Optimal Choices Can Be Collectively Disastrous in COVID-19 Disease Control
A modeling study of noncompliance with measures aimed at limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission found that a portion of the population that is noncompliant can result in extensive endemic disease in the long-term after a return to pre-pandemic activity. Using game theory to assess whether noncompliance is perceived as beneficial to individuals, the authors found that for…
April 29, 2021
Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False Negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID-19 Spread
A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to a university population with 50% asymptomatic infections suggests that temporal viral load dynamics, which account for viral loads below detectable levels prior to symptom onset, could result in false negative rates of 17-48%. The authors suggest that models that do not account for the effect of this undetectable period…
April 26, 2021
Rapid Vaccination and Early Partial Lockdown Minimizes 4th Waves from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants
A model calibrated to King County, Washington that includes the increased transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant, and local policy changes regarding openings and restrictions, found a new subsequent wave of infections was permitted in all scenarios. However, the new wave had fewer deaths expected compared to the prior wave due to vaccination of people at…
April 14, 2021
The Balancing Role of Distribution Speed against Varying Efficacy Levels of COVID-19 Vaccines under Variants
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Vaccines with lower efficacy can reduce population-level transmission more than vaccines with higher efficacy if distribution of lower efficacy vaccines was comparatively faster based on findings from a modeling study. A vaccine with 65% and 60% efficacy before and after the variants, respectively, can outperform a vaccine with 95% and 90% efficacy,…
Laboratory Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Exposure Reduction Through Physically Distanced Seating in Aircraft Cabins Using Bacteriophage Aerosol — November 2020
A laboratory model of airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission on single- and twin-aisle aircraft found that exposures were reduced by 23-57% in seating scenarios when the middle seat was left vacant compared to when every seat was filled. Data from a study which examined aerosolized dispersion of a non-pathogenic respiratory virus in various airline cabin mock-ups from…
April 9, 2021
Time-Dependent Heterogeneity Leads to Transient Suppression of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Not Herd Immunity
A theoretical modeling study demonstrates how population-level heterogeneity in susceptibility to an infectious disease produces a phenomenon called “transient collective immunity”, which may lead to a temporary and misleading decrease in cases before reaching a wider and lasting herd immunity threshold. In the COVID-19 pandemic, persons highly susceptible to infection due to biological or social…
April 5, 2021
Dynamic Prioritization of COVID-19 Vaccines When Social Distancing Is Limited for Essential Workers
A modeling study assessing vaccine allocation in the US across priority groups by age and essential worker status determined that prioritizing essential workers could potentially avert between 20,000 (when nonpharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak) deaths. The authors suggest their findings indicate that optimal vaccine allocation may change over time,…
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