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Tag: mortality
February 26, 2021
Risk of Death among Teachers in England and Wales during the Covid19 Pandemic
[pre-print; not peer-reviewed] An analysis of publicly available data on COVID-19 mortality in England and Wales suggests that absolute mortality rates for teachers were low (under 39 per 100,000), but that secondary school teachers had slightly higher risk of dying of COVID-19 relative to all professionals and working-aged people. Primary school teachers were not at…
February 22, 2021
Increased Hazard of Mortality in Cases Compatible with SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 2020121 – a Matched Cohort Study
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Findings from a cohort study among people tested for SARS-CoV-2 in community settings in the UK suggest the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant strain is associated with a higher risk of mortality. The hazard ratio for mortality was 1.7 for the variant strain compared to infection with previously circulating strains. This represents an increase…
February 17, 2021
Overall Burden and Characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A data-driven model-inference approach to simulate the COVID-19 pandemic at the US county-scale determined that approximately one third of the US population had been infected during 2020. The model concluded that there was an overall ascertainment rate of 22%, and population susceptibility at year end was 69%. The percentage of people harboring…
Real-Time Prediction of COVID-19 Related Mortality Using Electronic Health Records
The COVID-19 early warning system (CovEWS), a risk assessment system tool for real-time forecasting of COVID-19 related mortality risk, was found to predict mortality up to 192 hours prior to mortality events in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. The model was constructed from a variety of clinical and biomarker inputs and at a sensitivity of greater…
January 25, 2021
Abrupt Increase in the UK Coronavirus Death-Case Ratio in December 2020
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A study evaluating the statistical relationship between COVID-19 infections and reported deaths in the UK identified an increase in the case fatality ratio in December 2020. While deaths were well described as 1/55th of cases detected 12 days prior during the months of October and November, by early December the case fatality…
January 15, 2021
Circulating Mitochondrial DNA Is an Early Indicator of Severe Illness and Mortality from COVID-19
Elevated mitochondrial DNA levels measured within 24 hours of presentation were associated with mortality, ICU admission, intubation, vasopressor use, and renal replacement therapy in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. These associations were maintained after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidities. Circulating mitochondrial DNA levels demonstrate similar or improved sensitivity over clinically established measurements for assessing potential…
January 13, 2021
Using Excess Deaths and Testing Statistics to Improve Estimates of COVID-19 Mortalities
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A study combining historical and current mortality data, a statistical testing model, and an SIR epidemic model found that average excess deaths across the US were 13% higher than reported COVID-19 deaths. In some areas, such as New York City, the number of weekly deaths was about eight times higher than in…
January 12, 2021
Excess Cerebrovascular Mortality in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic
During April 2020, 40 states and New York City experienced fewer stroke-related emergency calls and an excess cerebrovascular mortality during April 2020. Decreased stroke-related emergency calls were associated with excess stroke deaths 1-2 weeks later. Among 23 states and New York City, a 10% increase in time spent at home was associated with a 4%…
January 5, 2021
Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands
There was a 41% excess in deaths in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 epidemic. While the excess in deaths recorded during the COVID-19 epidemic were comparable to the 18% excess during a more severe influenza epidemic during 2017-18, the COVID-19 excess deaths occurred in a shorter time frame, were characterized by a higher peak, and…
Validity of the National Health Security Preparedness Index as a Predictor of Excess COVID-19 Mortality
A tool developed by the Center for Disease Control to measure the United States capacity for responding to public health emergencies (the National Health Security Preparedness Index (NHSPI)) poorly predicted excess COVID-19 mortality rates during the first 6 months of the pandemic. State- and territorial-level excess mortality rates for all 50 states and Puerto Rico…
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