Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
September 29, 2020
Excess Risk of COVID-19 to University Populations Resulting from In-Person Sporting Events
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study using a stochastic compartmental model showed that in-person sporting events on college campuses could increase COVID-19 cases among the campus community. Even when COVID-19 cases were controlled both on-campus and among the larger population from which visitors to campus were drawn, such events presented a risk to the community….
September 25, 2020
Modeling between-population variation in COVID-19 dynamics in Hubei, Lombardy, and New York City
A mathematical model suggests that targeted sheltering of specific age groups combined with adherence to physical distancing by the rest of the population may be sufficient to thwart a substantial fraction of infections and deaths. Physical distancing could be achieved by engaging in activities such as staggered work schedules, increasing spacing in restaurants and prescribing…
Quantifying the impact of quarantine duration on COVID-19 transmission
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] In a modeling study, quarantining an infected traced contact for 10 days was estimated to prevent 75-99% of their onward transmission. In the scenario of a contact being infected on a return flight, a 10 day quarantine was estimated to prevent 99% of onward transmission. Ashcroft et al. (Sept 25, 2020)….
September 24, 2020
Transmission Dynamics Reveal the Impracticality of COVID-19 Herd Immunity Strategies
Achieving herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 without overwhelming hospital capacity was found to be impractical in a modeling study, due to the need to change social distancing requirements over time and with little room for error. Suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was possible with realistic levels of social distancing over several months. The transmission model was parameterized…
College Openings Mobility and the Incidence of COVID-19 Cases
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] In a modeling study, US counties containing a college campus that reopened with in-person instruction were found to have an average COVID-19 incidence increase of 0.024 cases per 1,000 residents over a two week period. Case increases were larger in counties with colleges that drew students coming from areas with increasing…
September 23, 2020
Optimal Dynamic Prioritization of Scarce COVID-19 Vaccines
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study reported that prioritizing a limited supply of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to certain population groups resulted in 17-18% fewer deaths, infections, and years of life lost compared to a non-prioritized strategy. The optimal strategies consistently prioritized older essential workers, though the model allowed the priority groups to vary over time. Optimal…
September 22, 2020
Immune Life History, Vaccination, and the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 Years
Saad-Roy et al. used SIR(S) models to explore how the COVID-19 pandemic might unfold under different assumptions about how long immunity lasts to SARS-CoV-2 and how protective it is against re-infection and transmission. They use these models to explore estimates for the magnitude and timing of future COVID-19 cases given different protective efficacy and duration…
September 21, 2020
Clinical Impact, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness of Expanded SARS-CoV-2 Testing in Massachusetts
Neilan et al. conducted a modeling study to examine testing strategies for SARS-CoV-2 under scenarios of different transmission intensity. In a scenario where transmission is slowing (Re=0.9), testing the entire population monthly and testing people with COVID-19 symptoms as needed would reduce infections by 63% and mortality by 44% compared to testing only patients with…
Impact of University Re-opening on Total Community COVID-19 Burden
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A modeling study reported that university students returning to schools may contribute to increased community transmission of COVID-19, affecting at-risk members of the city community. This is supported by a scenario that if students engage in a 24% contact reduction compared to pre-COVID levels, the number of community infections would increase…
September 18, 2020
Assessing the Potential Impact of COVID-19 on Life Expectancy
A 10% prevalence of COVID-19 over a year could decrease life expectancy at birth by more than 1 year in North America, while a 50% prevalence could drop it by 3 to 9 years, according to a modeling study. If prevalence remains below 1 or 2%, life expectancy is unlikely to be substantially affected. Marois…
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